Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Ryan Kuse vs Marcio Barbosa

5:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Marcio Barbosaby KO/TKO72% to win · closed -800
Result: Marcio Barbosa by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Marcio Barbosa
69% -224
Ryan Kuse
31% +224
How it ends
Barbosa by KO/TKO
55.2%
fair -123
Barbosa by SUB
2.6%
fair +3811
Barbosa by DEC
11.4%
fair +774
Kuse by KO/TKO
14.7%
fair +580
Kuse by SUB
2.0%
fair +5027
Kuse by DEC
14.2%
fair +604

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R140.1%fair +149
Ends in R222.1%fair +353
Ends in R312.1%fair +723
Goes distance25.6%fair +290
How this fight plays out

The model makes Barbosa a solid 69% favorite. Barbosa is most dangerous early — 11 of 11 tracked wins ended in the first round. Barbosa's most likely path is by KO/TKO (55%), and the fight goes the distance 26% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Barbosa: 67% of Kuse's wins come by knockout and 100% of Barbosa's losses have come the same way.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.