Probetrics — Sports Analytics

Ryan Gandra vs Ozzy Diaz

7:00 PM ET· final
Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Ryan Gandraby KO/TKO82% to win · closed -515
Result: Ryan Gandra by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Ozzy Diaz
16% +532
Ryan Gandra
84% -532
How it ends
Diaz by KO/TKO
11.2%
fair +793
Diaz by SUB
1.1%
fair +9063
Diaz by DEC
3.5%
fair +2730
Gandra by KO/TKO
72.8%
fair -267
Gandra by SUB
3.0%
fair +3245
Gandra by DEC
8.4%
fair +1088

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R147.5%fair +110
Ends in R226.1%fair +283
Ends in R314.4%fair +596
Goes distance12.0%fair +737
How this fight plays out

The model makes Gandra a clear 84% favorite. On the feet, Gandra sets the tempo — 6.0 significant strikes a minute to 4.9 — so Diaz needs moments, not volume. Gandra is most dangerous early — 8 of 11 tracked wins ended in the first round. Gandra's most likely path is by KO/TKO (73%), and the fight goes the distance 12% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Gandra: 70% of Diaz's wins come by knockout and 100% of Gandra's losses have come the same way.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.