Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Myktybek Orolbai vs Jeremiah Wells

5:30 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Myktybek Orolbaiby DEC78% to win · closed -1100
Result: Jeremiah Wells by SUB in Round 3 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Jeremiah Wells
30% +239
Myktybek Orolbai
70% -239
How it ends
Wells by KO/TKO
4.9%
fair +1942
Wells by SUB
8.5%
fair +1077
Wells by DEC
16.1%
fair +520
Orolbai by KO/TKO
2.7%
fair +3623
Orolbai by SUB
28.0%
fair +257
Orolbai by DEC
39.8%
fair +151

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R123.8%fair +321
Ends in R213.1%fair +665
Ends in R37.2%fair +1290
Goes distance55.9%fair -127
How this fight plays out

The model makes Orolbai a clear 70% favorite. Expect Orolbai to chase the takedown (7.1/15 min at 60%) while Wells tries to keep it standing behind 45% takedown defense. Orolbai's most likely path is on the scorecards (40%), and the fight goes the distance 56% of the time. The live danger for Orolbai: Wells finishes 36% of wins by submission and Orolbai has been submitted in 33% of losses.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.