Probetrics — Sports Analytics

Zach Reese vs Ryan Gandra

5:30 PM ET· final
Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Ryan Gandraby KO/TKO54% to win · closed -134
Result: Ryan Gandra by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Ryan Gandra
79% -381
Zach Reese
21% +381
How it ends
Gandra by KO/TKO
68.0%
fair -213
Gandra by SUB
3.3%
fair +2970
Gandra by DEC
7.9%
fair +1163
Reese by KO/TKO
4.2%
fair +2282
Reese by SUB
5.5%
fair +1717
Reese by DEC
11.1%
fair +802

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R143.7%fair +129
Ends in R224.0%fair +316
Ends in R313.2%fair +656
Goes distance19.0%fair +426
How this fight plays out

The model makes Gandra a clear 79% favorite. Expect Reese to chase the takedown (2.5/15 min at 61%) while Gandra tries to keep it standing behind 100% takedown defense. Gandra is most dangerous early — 8 of 11 tracked wins ended in the first round. Gandra's most likely path is by KO/TKO (68%), and the fight goes the distance 19% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Gandra: 50% of Reese's wins come by knockout and 100% of Gandra's losses have come the same way.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.