Probetrics — Sports Analytics
← UFC picksFight data: tape, stats, form, odds →

Felipe Franco vs Levi Rodrigues

5:00 PM ET· final
Save imageSquare
Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Levi Rodriguesby KO/TKO51% to win · closed -144
Result: Felipe Franco by KO/TKO in Round 2 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Levi Rodrigues
35% +184
Felipe Franco
65% -184
How it ends
Rodrigues by KO/TKO
16.0%
fair +524
Rodrigues by SUB
5.0%
fair +1883
Rodrigues by DEC
14.2%
fair +606
Franco by KO/TKO
37.1%
fair +170
Franco by SUB
22.4%
fair +347
Franco by DEC
5.3%
fair +1775

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R143.5%fair +130
Ends in R223.9%fair +318
Ends in R313.1%fair +661
Goes distance19.5%fair +413
How this fight plays out

The model makes Franco a solid 65% favorite. Expect Franco to chase the takedown (3.0/15 min at 41%) while Rodrigues tries to keep it standing behind 57% takedown defense. Franco is most dangerous early — 9 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round. Franco's most likely path is by KO/TKO (37%), and the fight goes the distance 19% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.