Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Alexander Hernandez vs Rafael Dos Anjos

4:00 PM ET· scheduled
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Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.
Model pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
Alexander Hernandezby DEC
78% to win · 40% that it’s by DEC · 53% this goes the distance
Model fair price -349
Probetrics fight model
Rafael Dos Anjos
22% +349
Alexander Hernandez
78% -349
How it ends
Anjos by KO/TKO
1.7%
fair +5715
Anjos by SUB
7.7%
fair +1207
Anjos by DEC
12.9%
fair +677
Hernandez by KO/TKO
35.5%
fair +182
Hernandez by SUB
2.6%
fair +3815
Hernandez by DEC
39.7%
fair +152

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R125.6%fair +291
Ends in R214.1%fair +611
Ends in R37.7%fair +1192
Goes distance52.6%fair -111
How this fight plays out

The model makes Hernandez a clear 78% favorite. Expect Anjos to chase the takedown (1.7/15 min at 29%) while Hernandez tries to keep it standing behind 70% takedown defense. Hernandez's most likely path is on the scorecards (40%), and the fight goes the distance 53% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.