Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Fabrizio Escarrega vs Abe Alsaghir

7:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Abe Alsaghirby KO/TKO54% to win · closed +115
Result: Abe Alsaghir by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Abe Alsaghir
39% +154
Fabrizio Escarrega
61% -154
How it ends
Alsaghir by KO/TKO
18.0%
fair +455
Alsaghir by SUB
5.0%
fair +1880
Alsaghir by DEC
16.3%
fair +514
Escarrega by KO/TKO
31.9%
fair +214
Escarrega by SUB
14.6%
fair +583
Escarrega by DEC
14.1%
fair +609

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R137.6%fair +166
Ends in R220.7%fair +384
Ends in R311.4%fair +780
Goes distance30.4%fair +229
How this fight plays out

The model makes Escarrega a solid 61% favorite. Expect Escarrega to chase the takedown (2.2/15 min at 100%) while Alsaghir tries to keep it standing behind 0% takedown defense. Escarrega is most dangerous early — 6 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round. Escarrega's most likely path is by KO/TKO (32%), and the fight goes the distance 30% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.