Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Pavel Andrusca vs Nathaniel Wood

12:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Pavel Andruscaby KO/TKO64% to win
Result: Pavel Andrusca by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Nathaniel Wood
36% +176
Pavel Andrusca
64% -176
How it ends
Wood by KO/TKO
2.8%
fair +3467
Wood by SUB
1.8%
fair +5533
Wood by DEC
31.6%
fair +216
Andrusca by KO/TKO
30.1%
fair +233
Andrusca by SUB
13.5%
fair +639
Andrusca by DEC
20.2%
fair +395

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R126.0%fair +285
Ends in R214.3%fair +599
Ends in R37.9%fair +1171
Goes distance51.8%fair -108
How this fight plays out

The model makes Andrusca a solid 64% favorite. Expect Andrusca to chase the takedown (2.7/15 min at 21%) while Wood tries to keep it standing behind 71% takedown defense. Andrusca is most dangerous early — 5 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round. Andrusca's most likely path is by KO/TKO (30%), and the fight goes the distance 52% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.