Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Quillan Salkilld vs Mateusz Gamrot

5:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Quillan Salkilldby DEC59% to win
Result: Quillan Salkilld by SUB in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Mateusz Gamrot
22% +349
Quillan Salkilld
78% -349
How it ends
Gamrot by KO/TKO
1.3%
fair +7693
Gamrot by SUB
10.6%
fair +846
Gamrot by DEC
10.4%
fair +860
Salkilld by KO/TKO
17.2%
fair +481
Salkilld by SUB
29.9%
fair +234
Salkilld by DEC
30.6%
fair +226

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R127.1%fair +269
Ends in R214.9%fair +571
Ends in R38.2%fair +1119
Ends in R45.6%fair +1674
Ends in R53.1%fair +3125
Goes distance41.0%fair +144
How this fight plays out

The model makes Salkilld a clear 78% favorite. On the feet, Salkilld sets the tempo — 4.6 significant strikes a minute to 3.1 — so Gamrot needs moments, not volume. Salkilld is most dangerous early — 7 of 12 tracked wins ended in the first round. Salkilld's most likely path is on the scorecards (31%), and the fight goes the distance 41% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.