WNBA track record · Model

How the WNBA model is tested

The method itself isn't published here. What is published: every pick is locked before tipoff and graded after, the model is evaluated on games it never saw, and a change only ships if it holds up there. Winners are the record — there is no spread or total for WNBA, only a probability the favored side wins. See the NBA modelfor the other league's numbers.

Backtest — held out 2020–26

Walk-forward: every game priced from ratings that have seen only the games before it. The model was fixed before this window was ever scored.

67.3%

Winners, held out

1,628

Games

53.4%

Always favor home

Calibration

The tiers below are the live record — thin so far, since basketball picks only started grading this season — next to the backtest's own headline as a reference. As more games grade, this section becomes the more meaningful check.

Model said 50–60%67% actual · n=3

Model said 60–70%100% actual · n=1

Model said 70–80%100% actual · n=3

Model said 80–100%67% actual · n=3

live record — actual win rate what the model said, on average backtest overall: 67.3% (n=1,628)

What we don't publish

The method, its parameters, and what was tried and rejected are not published — that's the part of the work we keep to ourselves. What's always public is the result: every pick locked pre-game, graded after, calibration shown honestly, and nothing about the record edited after the fact.

No player-prop lines are ingested yet for WNBA (TheRundown has no WNBA events posted this early in the build).

Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.