Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes

5:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Waldo Cortes Acostaby KO/TKO55% to win · closed -171
Result: Curtis Blaydes by DEC in Round 3 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Curtis Blaydes
44% +127
Waldo Cortes Acosta
56% -127
How it ends
Blaydes by KO/TKO
6.1%
fair +1546
Blaydes by SUB
6.5%
fair +1438
Blaydes by DEC
31.5%
fair +218
Acosta by KO/TKO
49.1%
fair +104
Acosta by SUB
1.3%
fair +7716
Acosta by DEC
5.6%
fair +1687

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R134.0%fair +194
Ends in R218.7%fair +435
Ends in R310.3%fair +873
Goes distance37.1%fair +170
How this fight plays out

The model makes Acosta a narrow 56% favorite. Expect Blaydes to chase the takedown (3.4/15 min at 38%) while Acosta tries to keep it standing behind 73% takedown defense. Acosta's most likely path is by KO/TKO (49%), and the fight goes the distance 37% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.