Predictions
College Football picks
Winner, spread and total on every FBS game, graded each week.
171/202
Winners called
85%
Locked before the start, graded after
Week 4: three calls on every game (winner, spread, total) from one forecast, locked before kickoff and graded after. 71 of 71 locked.
Thu, Sep 24, 7:30 PM ET · Brooks Stadium (SC) · 63° LIVE 20–17· Q3 0:00
LIB -2.5 · O/U 50.5
LIB -140 · CCU +120
7 books · best LIB -134 fanduel · CCU +121 pinnacle
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
LIB -140
55%
model margin LIB by 2.2
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Slight
CCU +2.5
50%
0.3 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Slight
Over 50.5
50%
model total 50.8 · best over 49.5 at hardrockbet
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has LIB winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, CCU. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread LIB ▼0.5 · model disagreesTotal Under ▼2.0 ⚡ · model disagrees
QB change · Deshawn Purdie starting for LIB
Fri, Sep 25, 4:00 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field · 73° · 16 mph wind · Intermittent cloudsModel predicts ARMY 28 – TEM 21
ARMY -3 · O/U 48.5
ARMY -155 · TEM +130
7 books · best ARMY -150 bovada · TEM +135 betonlineag
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Solid
ARMY -155
65%
model margin ARMY by 6.5
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
ARMY -3
51%
3.5 pts from the number · best ARMY -2.5 at hardrockbet
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Slight
Over 48.5
50%
model total 48.9 · best over 48 at pinnacle
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Under ▼0.5 · model disagrees
Rest ARMY 13d · TEM 6dQB change · Ajani Sheppard starting for TEM
Fri, Sep 25, 7:00 PM ET · SHI Stadium · 67° · 12 mph wind · Intermittent cloudsModel predicts HOW 20 – RUTG 38
RUTG -43.5 · O/U 55.5
4 books
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
RUTG
86%
model margin RUTG by 18.3
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
HOW +43.5
59%
25.2 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 55.5
51%
model total 58.6 · best over 55 at pinnacle
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has RUTG winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, HOW. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread RUTG ▲0.5 · model disagreesTotal Over ▲1.0 · model agrees
Rest HOW 13d · RUTG 6d
Fri, Sep 25, 7:00 PM ET · Protective Stadium · 76° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts NAVY 30 – UAB 23
NAVY -6.5 · O/U 51.5
NAVY -262 · UAB +210
7 books · best NAVY -250 bovada · UAB +215 betonlineag
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Solid
NAVY -262
66%
model margin NAVY by 7.3
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Slight
NAVY -6.5
50%
0.8 pts from the number · best NAVY -6 at betonlineag
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Over 51.5
50%
model total 52.7 · best over 51 at bovada
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread UAB ▲1.3 · model disagrees
Rest NAVY 13d · UAB 6dQB change · Jackson Gutierrez starting for NAVY
Fri, Sep 25, 8:00 PM ET · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 62° · Partly cloudyModel predicts NU 9 – IU 38
IU -20.5 · O/U 49.5
NU +979 · IU -1800
7 books · best NU +1100 draftkings · IU -1600 betmgm
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
IU -1800
95%
model margin IU by 28.3
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
IU -20.5
53%
7.8 pts from the number · best IU -20 at betonlineag
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Under 49.5
51%
model total 46.9 · best under 50 at pinnacle
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread NU ▼2.0 · model disagrees
QB change · Aidan Chiles starting for NU
Fri, Sep 25, 10:30 PM ET · California Memorial Stadium · 67° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts CLEM 28 – CAL 23
CLEM -1 · O/U 50.5
CLEM -115 · CAL -105
7 books · best CLEM -112 pinnacle · CAL -102 pinnacle
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
CLEM -115
60%
model margin CLEM by 4.3
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
CLEM -1
51%
3.3 pts from the number · best CLEM PK at betonlineag
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Slight
Over 50.5
50%
model total 51.0
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread CLEM ▼1.0 ⚡ · model agrees
QB change · Tait Reynolds starting for CLEM
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET · Ohio Stadium · 63° · SunnyModel predicts ILL 16 – OSU 34
OSU -27 · O/U 53.5
ILL +1600 · OSU -5000
7 books · best ILL +1900 betmgm · OSU -4000 draftkings
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
OSU -5000
86%
model margin OSU by 18.9
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
ILL +27
53%
8.1 pts from the number · best ILL +27.5 at draftkings
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 53.5
51%
model total 50.0 · best under 54.5 at fanduel
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has OSU winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, ILL. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread ILL ▼0.3 · model agrees
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET · Galaxy Stadium · 77° · Partly sunnyModel predicts SHSU 2 – TTU 45
TTU -34.5 · O/U 55.5
SHSU +4000 · TTU -30000
7 books · best SHSU +4000 fanduel · TTU -30000 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
TTU -30000
98%
model margin TTU by 43.0
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
TTU -34.5
53%
8.5 pts from the number · best TTU -34 at betonlineag
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 55.5
53%
model total 47.5 · best under 56.5 at betonlineag
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread SHSU ▼1.3 · model disagreesTotal Over ▲1.3 · model disagrees
Rest SHSU 7d · TTU 8dQB change · Will Hammond starting for TTU
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · 67° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts WAKE 26 – LOU 36
LOU -13.5 · O/U 57
WAKE +425 · LOU -595
7 books · best WAKE +430 fanduel · LOU -540 betonlineag
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
LOU -595
73%
model margin LOU by 10.7
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean
WAKE +13.5
51%
2.8 pts from the number · best WAKE +14 at bovada
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 57
52%
model total 62.1 · best over 56.5 at draftkings
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has LOU winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, WAKE. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread LOU ▲0.8 ⚡ · model disagreesTotal Under ▼1.0 ⚡ · model disagrees
Rest WAKE 8d · LOU 7d
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET · McLane Stadium · 82° · Partly sunnyModel predicts COLO 22 – BAY 31
BAY -9.5 · O/U 55.5
COLO +295 · BAY -380
7 books · best COLO +303 betonlineag · BAY -375 betmgm
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
BAY -380
70%
model margin BAY by 9.0
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Slight
COLO +9.5
50%
0.5 pts from the number · best COLO +10 at betonlineag
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Under 55.5
51%
model total 53.4
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has BAY winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, COLO. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Over ▲0.5 · model disagrees
QB change · Nate Bennett starting for BAY
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) · 60° · 21 mph wind · 81% precip · RainModel predicts VT 27 – BC 20
VT -14 · O/U 47.5
VT -625 · BC +440
7 books · best VT -590 betonlineag · BC +490 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Solid
VT -625
65%
model margin VT by 6.7
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
BC +14
53%
7.3 pts from the number · best BC +14.5 at fanduel
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Slight
Under 47.5
50%
model total 47.0 · best under 48 at pinnacle
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has VT winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, BC. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Under ▼5.5 · model agrees
QB change · Mason McKenzie starting for BC
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET · Glass Bowl · 64° · SunnyModel predicts SDSU 22 – TOL 31
TOL -3 · O/U 51.5
SDSU +125 · TOL -146
7 books · best SDSU +127 betonlineag · TOL -145 bovada
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
TOL -146
71%
model margin TOL by 9.5
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
TOL -3
52%
6.5 pts from the number · best TOL -2.5 at fanduel
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Over 51.5
51%
model total 53.0 · best over 51 at betonlineag
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread TOL ▲0.5 ⚡ · model agreesTotal Over ▲1.3 · model agrees
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET · Alamodome · IndoorsModel predicts CSU 22 – UTSA 40
UTSA -13.5 · O/U 58.5
CSU +415 · UTSA -568
7 books · best CSU +425 draftkings · UTSA -550 betonlineag
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
UTSA -568
86%
model margin UTSA by 18.5
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
UTSA -13.5
52%
5.0 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 58.5
51%
model total 61.9 · best over 57.5 at fanduel
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread UTSA ▲0.8 · model agreesTotal Over ▲0.5 · model agrees
QB change · Ksaan Farrar starting for CSU
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET · InfoCision Stadium · 65° · SunnyModel predicts UNLV 30 – AKR 17
UNLV -13.5 · O/U 52.5
UNLV -550 · AKR +400
7 books · best UNLV -525 betonlineag · AKR +410 draftkings
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
UNLV -550
77%
model margin UNLV by 12.7
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Slight
AKR +13.5
50%
0.8 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 52.5
52%
model total 47.4 · best under 53 at bovada
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has UNLV winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, AKR. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Over ▲2.3 · model disagrees
Rest UNLV 14d · AKR 7d
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET · Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium · 64° · SunnyModel predicts BALL 28 – KENT 34
KENT -3 · O/U 50.5
BALL +130 · KENT -155
7 books · best BALL +135 bovada · KENT -144 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Solid
KENT -155
65%
model margin KENT by 6.6
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
KENT -3
51%
3.6 pts from the number · best KENT -2.5 at hardrockbet
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 50.5
54%
model total 61.7
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Over ▲1.5 · model agrees
QB change · Keldric Luster starting for BALL
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET · Neyland Stadium · 68° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts TEX 31 – TENN 28
TEX -4 · O/U 55.5
TEX -190 · TENN +160
7 books · best TEX -182 fanduel · TENN +170 betonlineag
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
TEX -190
59%
model margin TEX by 3.8
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Slight
TENN +4
50%
0.2 pts from the number · best TENN +4.5 at fanduel
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 55.5
51%
model total 58.9 · best over 55 at betonlineag
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has TEX winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, TENN. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread TENN ▲0.5 ⚡ · model agreesTotal Under ▼0.5 · model disagrees
QB change · Faizon Brandon starting for TENN
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium · 66° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts BUCK 8 – PITT 47
PITT -52.5 · O/U 62.75
4 books
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
PITT
98%
model margin PITT by 38.6
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
BUCK +52.5
55%
13.9 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 62.75
53%
model total 54.5 · best under 63.5 at draftkings
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has PITT winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, BUCK. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Over ▲1.5 · model disagrees
Rest BUCK 7d · PITT 9d
Sat, Sep 26, 12:45 PM ET · Kroger Field · 67° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts USA 23 – UK 36
UK -20.5 · O/U 54.5
USA +850 · UK -1450
7 books · best USA +920 fanduel · UK -1200 hardrockbet
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
UK -1450
77%
model margin UK by 12.8
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
USA +20.5
53%
7.7 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 54.5
52%
model total 59.7
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has UK winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, USA. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
QB change · Kenny Minchey starting for UK
Sat, Sep 26, 1:00 PM ET · Rynearson Stadium · 67° · SunnyModel predicts LIN 19 – EMU 33
EMU -26 · O/U 49.5
LIN +2000 · EMU -7000
4 books · best LIN +2200 draftkings · EMU -4000 hardrockbet
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
EMU -7000
78%
model margin EMU by 13.0
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
LIN +26
54%
13.0 pts from the number · best LIN +26.5 at fanduel
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Over 49.5
51%
model total 52.0
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has EMU winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, LIN. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread LIN ▼1.0 · model agrees
Rest LIN 14d · EMU 7d
Sat, Sep 26, 1:30 PM ET · SECU Stadium · 70° · 16 mph wind · Intermittent cloudsModel predicts UCLA 26 – MD 26
UCLA -1.5 · O/U 56.5
UCLA -120 · MD +100
7 books · best UCLA -119 pinnacle · MD +104 pinnacle
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
MD +100
50%
model margin MD by 0.0
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean
MD +1.5
51%
1.5 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 56.5
51%
model total 52.7 · best under 57 at pinnacle
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread MD ▲1.0 · model agreesTotal Under ▼1.3 ⚡ · model agrees
Sat, Sep 26, 2:00 PM ET · Ross-Ade Stadium · 70° · Partly sunnyModel predicts ND 45 – PUR 20
ND -28 · O/U 58.5
ND -5000 · PUR +1602
7 books · best ND -4500 draftkings · PUR +1900 betmgm
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
ND -5000
93%
model margin ND by 25.2
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean
PUR +28
51%
2.8 pts from the number · best PUR +28.5 at hardrockbet
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 58.5
52%
model total 65.1 · best over 57.5 at pinnacle
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has ND winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, PUR. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread ND ▼0.8 · model disagreesTotal Under ▲0.3 · model disagrees
QB change · C.J. Carr starting for ND
Sat, Sep 26, 2:00 PM ET · Center Parc Stadium · 80° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts NIU 25 – GAST 32
GAST -10.5 · O/U 56
NIU +310 · GAST -400
7 books · best NIU +325 hardrockbet · GAST -375 betonlineag
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Solid
GAST -400
66%
model margin GAST by 6.9
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
NIU +10.5
51%
3.6 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Over 56
50%
model total 57.2 · best over 55.5 at fanduel
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has GAST winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, NIU. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread GAST ▲0.5 · model disagreesTotal Over ▲1.0 · model agrees
Sat, Sep 26, 3:00 PM ET · Doak Campbell Stadium · 85° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts CARK 15 – FSU 44
FSU -45.5 · O/U 61.5
4 books
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
FSU
95%
model margin FSU by 29.1
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
CARK +45.5
56%
16.4 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Under 61.5
51%
model total 59.7 · best under 62.5 at fanduel
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has FSU winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, CARK. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread FSU ▲1.0 · model disagreesTotal Over ▲2.0 · model disagrees
QB change · Ashton Daniels starting for FSU
Sat, Sep 26, 3:00 PM ET · War Memorial Stadium · 72° · 16 mph wind · Mostly sunnyModel predicts HAW 21 – WYO 12
HAW -3 · O/U 43.5
HAW -157 · WYO +135
7 books · best HAW -150 fanduel · WYO +137 betonlineag
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
HAW -157
70%
model margin HAW by 9.1
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
HAW -3
52%
6.1 pts from the number · best HAW -2.5 at hardrockbet
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 43.5
54%
model total 32.9 · best under 44 at pinnacle
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread WYO ▲0.5 ⚡ · model disagreesTotal Under ▼1.8 · model agrees
Rest HAW 14d · WYO 7dQB change · Tyler Hughes starting for WYO
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET · Sanford Stadium · 81° · SunnyModel predicts OU 17 – UGA 29
UGA -13.5 · O/U 44.5
OU +425 · UGA -600
7 books · best OU +450 fanduel · UGA -550 draftkings
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
UGA -600
75%
model margin UGA by 11.8
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean
OU +13.5
51%
1.7 pts from the number · best OU +14 at pinnacle
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Over 44.5
50%
model total 45.7
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has UGA winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, OU. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Over ▲0.8 · model agrees
QB change · John Mateer starting for OU
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 85° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts MISS 40 – FLA 27
FLA -3.5 · O/U 59
MISS +140 · FLA -165
7 books · best MISS +147 betonlineag · FLA -155 draftkings
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
MISS +140
79%
model margin MISS by 13.6
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
MISS +3.5
56%
17.1 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 59
53%
model total 67.0 · best over 58.5 at betmgm
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Under ▼1.3 ⚡ · model disagrees
QB change · Aaron Philo starting for FLA
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET · Michigan Stadium · 71° · SunnyModel predicts IOWA 21 – MICH 21
MICH -5.5 · O/U 38.5
IOWA +180 · MICH -220
7 books · best IOWA +187 pinnacle · MICH -210 betonlineag
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
MICH -220
51%
model margin MICH by 0.3
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
IOWA +5.5
52%
5.2 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 38.5
51%
model total 42.7
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has MICH winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, IOWA. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread MICH ▲0.8 · model disagreesTotal Over ▲0.8 ⚡ · model agrees
QB change · Hank Brown starting for IOWA
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET · Jack Trice Stadium · 62° · 11 mph wind · 71% precip · CloudyModel predicts UTAH 31 – ISU 22
UTAH -8 · O/U 47.5
UTAH -340 · ISU +270
7 books · best UTAH -325 betmgm · ISU +279 pinnacle
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Solid
UTAH -340
69%
model margin UTAH by 8.7
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Slight
UTAH -8
50%
0.7 pts from the number · best UTAH -7.5 at draftkings
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 47.5
52%
model total 52.9
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread ISU ▲0.8 ⚡ · model disagreesTotal Under ▼1.0 · model disagrees
QB change · Jaylen Raynor starting for ISU
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET · Acrisure Bounce House · 86° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts TCU 25 – UCF 24
TCU -3 · O/U 48.5
TCU -155 · UCF +130
7 books · best TCU -154 pinnacle · UCF +135 bovada
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
TCU -155
52%
model margin TCU by 0.8
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean
UCF +3
51%
2.2 pts from the number · best UCF +3.5 at fanduel
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Slight
Under 48.5
50%
model total 48.5
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has TCU winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, UCF. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Under ▼1.0 ⚡ · model agrees
QB change · Jaden Craig starting for TCU
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET · Waldo Stadium · 70° · SunnyModel predicts BOIS 26 – WMU 23
BOIS -7 · O/U 49.5
BOIS -290 · WMU +230
7 books · best BOIS -275 fanduel · WMU +242 pinnacle
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
BOIS -290
55%
model margin BOIS by 2.3
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
WMU +7
52%
4.7 pts from the number · best WMU +7.5 at pinnacle
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Slight
Under 49.5
50%
model total 49.0 · best under 50 at bovada
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has BOIS winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, WMU. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Over ▲0.8 · model disagrees
QB change · Broc Lowry starting for WMU
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET · Yager Stadium · 71° · SunnyModel predicts CONN 31 – M-OH 30
M-OH -3.5 · O/U 51.5
CONN +153 · M-OH -175
7 books · best CONN +160 bovada · M-OH -162 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
CONN +153
54%
model margin CONN by 1.7
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
CONN +3.5
52%
5.2 pts from the number · best CONN +4 at betonlineag
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 51.5
53%
model total 61.2
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread CONN ▼1.0 ⚡ · model agreesTotal Over ▲1.3 · model agrees
QB change · Kalieb Osborne starting for CONN
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET · Wallace Wade Stadium · 76° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts W&M 11 – DUKE 48
DUKE -43.5 · O/U 62.5
4 books
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
DUKE
98%
model margin DUKE by 37.7
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
W&M +43.5
52%
5.8 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 62.5
51%
model total 58.8
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has DUKE winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, W&M. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Over ▲1.0 · model disagrees
QB change · Walker Eget starting for DUKE
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET · Aggie Memorial Stadium · 80° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts UNM 30 – NMSU 20
UNM -11.5 · O/U 48.5
UNM -460 · NMSU +358
7 books · best UNM -450 betmgm · NMSU +375 hardrockbet
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
UNM -460
73%
model margin UNM by 10.7
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Slight
NMSU +11.5
50%
0.8 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Over 48.5
50%
model total 49.8
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has UNM winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, NMSU. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread NMSU ▲1.0 ⚡ · model agrees
Rest UNM 7d · NMSU 14dQB change · Toa Faavae starting for UNM
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET · Broadview Stadium · 72° · Partly sunnyModel predicts RMU 18 – BUFF 35
BUFF -28.5 · O/U 45.5
RMU +2000 · BUFF -7000
4 books · best RMU +2250 hardrockbet · BUFF -6500 draftkings
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
BUFF -7000
84%
model margin BUFF by 17.2
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
RMU +28.5
54%
11.3 pts from the number · best RMU +29.5 at hardrockbet
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 45.5
53%
model total 52.9 · best over 45 at betonlineag
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has BUFF winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, RMU. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Over ▲0.5 · model agrees
Rest RMU 14d · BUFF 7dQB change · Jason Wright starting for BUFF
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET · Peden Stadium · 72° · SunnyModel predicts STO 16 – OHIO 41
OHIO -33 · O/U 52.5
STO +3734 · OHIO -24004
4 books · best STO +4000 fanduel · OHIO -20000 draftkings
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
OHIO -24004
93%
model margin OHIO by 25.6
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
STO +33
53%
7.4 pts from the number · best STO +33.5 at draftkings
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 52.5
52%
model total 57.4 · best over 51.5 at hardrockbet
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has OHIO winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, STO. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread OHIO · model disagreesTotal Over ▲1.5 · model agrees
QB change · Matt Vezza starting for OHIO
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET · Joan C. Edwards Stadium · 74° · SunnyModel predicts GWEB 16 – MRSH 41
MRSH -24 · O/U 50.5
GWEB +1400 · MRSH -4000
4 books · best GWEB +1600 draftkings · MRSH -2500 hardrockbet
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
MRSH -4000
93%
model margin MRSH by 25.6
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean
MRSH -24
51%
1.6 pts from the number · best MRSH -23.5 at draftkings
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 50.5
52%
model total 56.7
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread GWEB · model disagrees
Rest GWEB 14d · MRSH 7d
Sat, Sep 26, 4:00 PM ET · Allen E. Paulson Stadium · 82° · SunnyModel predicts HOU 35 – GASO 21
HOU -18 · O/U 56.5
HOU -1031 · GASO +661
7 books · best HOU -1000 betonlineag · GASO +740 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
HOU -1031
79%
model margin HOU by 13.7
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
GASO +18
51%
4.3 pts from the number · best GASO +18.5 at fanduel
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Slight
Under 56.5
50%
model total 55.9
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has HOU winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, GASO. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread GASO ▲0.8 · model agreesTotal Over ▲1.5 · model disagrees
Rest HOU 8d · GASO 7dQB change · Max Johnson starting for GASO
Sat, Sep 26, 4:00 PM ET · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · 75° · 11 mph wind · Partly sunnyModel predicts NCCU 11 – ECU 42
ECU -35.5 · O/U 56.5
NCCU +2500 · ECU -15000
4 books · best NCCU +3500 draftkings · ECU -10000 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
ECU -15000
96%
model margin ECU by 31.0
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
NCCU +35.5
52%
4.5 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 56.5
52%
model total 52.1
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has ECU winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, NCCU. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread ECU ▲1.0 · model disagreesTotal Over ▲1.5 · model disagrees
QB change · Mitch Griffis starting for ECU
Sat, Sep 26, 4:15 PM ET · Jordan-Hare Stadium · 83° · 16 mph wind · Mostly sunnyModel predicts VAN 31 – AUB 22
AUB -9.5 · O/U 55
VAN +285 · AUB -364
7 books · best VAN +300 hardrockbet · AUB -350 betmgm
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
VAN +285
70%
model margin VAN by 9.2
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
VAN +9.5
56%
18.7 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Under 55
51%
model total 52.9 · best under 55.5 at draftkings
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Over ▲0.5 · model disagrees
QB change · Jared Curtis starting for VAN
Sat, Sep 26, 5:00 PM ET · Beaver Stadium · 67° · Partly sunnyModel predicts WIS 13 – PSU 32
PSU -10 · O/U 44.5
WIS +308 · PSU -395
7 books · best WIS +325 hardrockbet · PSU -375 betmgm
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
PSU -395
87%
model margin PSU by 19.4
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
PSU -10
53%
9.4 pts from the number · best PSU -9.5 at fanduel
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Slight
Under 44.5
50%
model total 44.4 · best under 45 at pinnacle
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Under ▼0.8 ⚡ · model agrees
QB change · Rocco Becht starting for PSU
Sat, Sep 26, 5:00 PM ET · Spartan Stadium · 70° · SunnyModel predicts NEB 30 – MSU 23
NEB -5.5 · O/U 48.5
NEB -220 · MSU +183
7 books · best NEB -205 fanduel · MSU +190 hardrockbet
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Solid
NEB -220
66%
model margin NEB by 7.0
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean
NEB -5.5
51%
1.5 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 48.5
51%
model total 52.3
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Over ▲0.8 · model agrees
QB change · Alessio Milivojevic starting for MSU
Sat, Sep 26, 5:00 PM ET · Doyt L. Perry Stadium · 71° · SunnyModel predicts USF 40 – BGSU 14
USF -17.5 · O/U 49
USF -1000 · BGSU +650
7 books · best USF -900 betmgm · BGSU +700 hardrockbet
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
USF -1000
93%
model margin USF by 25.7
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
USF -17.5
53%
8.2 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 49
52%
model total 54.3 · best over 48.5 at pinnacle
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread USF ▼0.5 · model agreesTotal Under ▼0.3 · model disagrees
QB change · Jay Kastantin starting for BGSU
Sat, Sep 26, 6:00 PM ET · Scott Stadium · 72° · Partly sunnyModel predicts DEL 17 – UVA 32
UVA -19.5 · O/U 52.5
DEL +810 · UVA -1300
7 books · best DEL +850 draftkings · UVA -1200 betmgm
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
UVA -1300
81%
model margin UVA by 15.2
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
DEL +19.5
52%
4.3 pts from the number · best DEL +20 at pinnacle
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Under 52.5
51%
model total 49.7
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has UVA winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, DEL. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
QB change · Beau Pribula starting for UVA
Sat, Sep 26, 6:00 PM ET · S.B. Ballard Stadium · 71° · 11 mph wind · Intermittent cloudsModel predicts JMU 29 – ODU 19
JMU -6 · O/U 44.5
JMU -225 · ODU +185
7 books · best JMU -215 betonlineag · ODU +190 hardrockbet
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
JMU -225
72%
model margin JMU by 10.3
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
JMU -6
51%
4.3 pts from the number · best JMU -5.5 at fanduel
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 44.5
51%
model total 47.9
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread JMU ▼1.3 · model agreesTotal Under ▼3.0 · model disagrees
Sat, Sep 26, 6:00 PM ET · UFCU Stadium · 93° · Partly sunnyModel predicts UIW 16 – TXST 48
TXST -30.5 · O/U 65.25
UIW +1600 · TXST -5000
4 books · best UIW +2000 draftkings · TXST -4500 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
TXST -5000
97%
model margin TXST by 32.0
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean
TXST -30.5
51%
1.5 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Under 65.25
51%
model total 63.0
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Over ▲0.5 · model disagrees
Sat, Sep 26, 6:00 PM ET · Pitbull Stadium · 90° · Partly sunny w/ t-stormsModel predicts LIU 14 – FIU 33
FIU -35 · O/U 53
LIU +3000 · FIU -8890
4 books · best LIU +3000 draftkings · FIU -8000 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
FIU -8890
86%
model margin FIU by 18.6
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
LIU +35
56%
16.4 pts from the number · best LIU +35.5 at draftkings
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 53
52%
model total 46.7 · best under 53.5 at fanduel
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has FIU winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, LIU. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread FIU ▲1.0 · model disagreesTotal Over ▲1.0 · model disagrees
Rest LIU 22d · FIU 7d
Sat, Sep 26, 6:30 PM ET · Jerry Richardson Stadium · 76° · SunnyModel predicts UL 33 – CLT 17
UL -10 · O/U 48.5
UL -420 · CLT +320
7 books · best UL -410 betonlineag · CLT +325 hardrockbet
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
UL -420
81%
model margin UL by 15.4
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
UL -10
52%
5.4 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Over 48.5
51%
model total 50.0 · best over 48 at betonlineag
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Under ▼0.8 · model disagrees
QB change · Cole Gonzales starting for CLT
Sat, Sep 26, 6:30 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium · 82° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts CMU 5 – MIA 38
MIA -41.5 · O/U 53.5
7 books
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
MIA
97%
model margin MIA by 33.5
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
CMU +41.5
53%
8.0 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 53.5
54%
model total 43.2 · best under 54.5 at draftkings
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has MIA winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, CMU. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread MIA ▲1.3 · model disagreesTotal Over ▲0.5 · model disagrees
Rest CMU 7d · MIA 8dQB change · Angel H Flores starting for CMU
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM ET · Bryant-Denny Stadium · 79° · Partly sunnyModel predicts SC 22 – ALA 37
ALA -12.5 · O/U 53.5
SC +375 · ALA -515
7 books · best SC +393 betonlineag · ALA -485 draftkings
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
ALA -515
82%
model margin ALA by 15.5
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean
ALA -12.5
51%
3.0 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 53.5
52%
model total 59.1
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Under ▼0.5 · model disagrees
QB change · Keelon Russell starting for ALA
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM ET · Nippert Stadium · 68° · SunnyModel predicts KSU 31 – CIN 30
KSU -6.5 · O/U 55.5
KSU -230 · CIN +191
7 books · best KSU -228 pinnacle · CIN +210 betmgm
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
KSU -230
52%
model margin KSU by 0.8
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
CIN +6.5
52%
5.7 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 55.5
52%
model total 61.5 · best over 55 at pinnacle
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has KSU winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, CIN. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Over ▲1.0 ⚡ · model agrees
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM ET · Milan Puskar Stadium · 67° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts OKST 22 – WVU 32
WVU -1.5 · O/U 60.5
OKST +105 · WVU -125
7 books · best OKST +109 pinnacle · WVU -123 betonlineag
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
WVU -125
73%
model margin WVU by 10.4
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
WVU -1.5
53%
8.9 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 60.5
52%
model total 54.6 · best under 61 at pinnacle
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Over ▲1.0 · model disagrees
QB change · Michael Hawkins Jr. starting for WVU
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM ET · Yulman Stadium · 86° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts USM 14 – TULN 33
TULN -17.5 · O/U 52.5
USM +671 · TULN -1050
7 books · best USM +720 fanduel · TULN -1000 betonlineag
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
TULN -1050
87%
model margin TULN by 19.0
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean
TULN -17.5
51%
1.5 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 52.5
52%
model total 47.1
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Over ▲0.5 ⚡ · model disagrees
QB change · Landy Lyddy starting for USM
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM ET · Centennial Bank Stadium · 79° · Intermittent cloudsModel predicts KENN 25 – ARST 26
ARST -6.5 · O/U 52.5
KENN +200 · ARST -240
7 books · best KENN +211 betonlineag · ARST -235 betmgm
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
ARST -240
54%
model margin ARST by 1.8
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
KENN +6.5
52%
4.7 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Under 52.5
51%
model total 50.9 · best under 53 at bovada
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has ARST winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, KENN. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread ARST ▲2.3 · model disagreesTotal Under ▼0.8 · model agrees
QB change · Trey Owens starting for ARST
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM ET · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · 72° · Intermittent cloudsModel predicts MERC 20 – WKU 44
WKU -40.5 · O/U 57.5
MERC +3500 · WKU -20000
4 books · best MERC +3500 fanduel · WKU -20000 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
WKU -20000
92%
model margin WKU by 23.7
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
MERC +40.5
56%
16.8 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 57.5
52%
model total 64.1 · best over 56.5 at fanduel
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has WKU winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, MERC. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread WKU ▲2.0 · model disagreesTotal Over ▲2.0 · model agrees
Rest MERC 14d · WKU 7dQB change · Brock Glenn starting for WKU
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM ET · AmFirst Stadium · 77° · Partly sunnyModel predicts MTSU 23 – JVST 31
JVST -7 · O/U 51.5
MTSU +230 · JVST -290
7 books · best MTSU +241 pinnacle · JVST -280 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Solid
JVST -290
67%
model margin JVST by 7.4
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Slight
JVST -7
50%
0.4 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Over 51.5
51%
model total 53.8 · best over 51 at pinnacle
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread MTSU ▼0.8 ⚡ · model disagreesTotal Under ▼0.5 · model disagrees
QB change · Roman Gagliano starting for MTSU
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM ET · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 85° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts ORE 37 – USC 34
ORE -3 · O/U 62.5
ORE -155 · USC +130
7 books · best ORE -150 bovada · USC +140 betonlineag
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
ORE -155
55%
model margin ORE by 2.1
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Slight
USC +3
50%
0.9 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 62.5
53%
model total 70.9 · best over 62 at pinnacle
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has ORE winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, USC. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread ORE ▼0.5 ⚡ · model disagreesTotal Over ▲0.5 · model agrees
Rest ORE 8d · USC 7d
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM ET · Tiger Stadium (LA) · 85° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts TA&M 24 – LSU 28
LSU -9.5 · O/U 51.5
TA&M +289 · LSU -365
7 books · best TA&M +300 hardrockbet · LSU -350 betmgm
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
LSU -365
59%
model margin LSU by 3.7
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
TA&M +9.5
52%
5.8 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Slight
Over 51.5
50%
model total 51.9
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has LSU winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, TA&M. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread TA&M ▼0.3 · model agreesTotal Under ▼1.0 ⚡ · model disagrees
QB change · Marcel Reed starting for TA&M
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM ET · Carter-Finley Stadium · 68° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts APP 24 – NCSU 34
NCSU -14 · O/U 55.5
APP +446 · NCSU -606
7 books · best APP +460 fanduel · NCSU -600 betonlineag
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
NCSU -606
72%
model margin NCSU by 9.9
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
APP +14
51%
4.1 pts from the number · best APP +14.5 at fanduel
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Over 55.5
51%
model total 57.2 · best over 55 at pinnacle
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has NCSU winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, APP. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread NCSU ▲0.5 ⚡ · model disagreesTotal Under · model disagrees
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM ET · Martin Stadium · 58° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts ARIZ 24 – WSU 19
ARIZ -10.5 · O/U 48.5
ARIZ -425 · WSU +333
7 books · best ARIZ -410 draftkings · WSU +350 hardrockbet
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Solid
ARIZ -425
62%
model margin ARIZ by 5.3
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
WSU +10.5
52%
5.2 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 48.5
52%
model total 42.9
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has ARIZ winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, WSU. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread WSU · model agreesTotal Over ▲1.0 · model disagrees
QB change · Caden Pinnick starting for WSU
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM ET · Maverik Stadium · 79° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts TROY 23 – USU 17
USU -3 · O/U 47.5
TROY +125 · USU -148
7 books · best TROY +130 hardrockbet · USU -145 bovada
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Solid
TROY +125
64%
model margin TROY by 6.0
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
TROY +3
53%
9.0 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 47.5
53%
model total 39.3
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread USU ▲0.8 ⚡ · model disagreesTotal Under ▼2.5 · model agrees
QB change · Grady Brosterhous starting for USU
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM ET · DATCU Stadium · 89° · Partly sunnyModel predicts HCU 16 – UNT 52
UNT -39 · O/U 59
HCU +5000 · UNT -100000
4 books · best HCU +5000 draftkings · UNT -100000 draftkings
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
UNT -100000
98%
model margin UNT by 35.8
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
HCU +39
51%
3.2 pts from the number · best HCU +39.5 at draftkings
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 59
53%
model total 68.4 · best over 58.5 at draftkings
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has UNT winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, HCU. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread UNT ▲2.0 · model disagreesTotal Under · model disagrees
Rest HCU 21d · UNT 7d
Sat, Sep 26, 7:45 PM ET · Davis Wade Stadium · 79° · Intermittent cloudsModel predicts MIZ 32 – MSST 31
MSST -6 · O/U 58.5
MIZ +185 · MSST -225
7 books · best MIZ +195 draftkings · MSST -220 betonlineag
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
MIZ +185
53%
model margin MIZ by 1.4
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
MIZ +6
53%
7.4 pts from the number · best MIZ +6.5 at pinnacle
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 58.5
51%
model total 62.6 · best over 58 at pinnacle
QB change · Kamario Taylor starting for MSST
Sat, Sep 26, 8:00 PM ET · Malone Stadium · 83° · Partly sunnyModel predicts FAU 38 – ULM 22
FAU -13 · O/U 57.5
FAU -500 · ULM +380
7 books · best FAU -465 fanduel · ULM +400 betonlineag
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
FAU -500
82%
model margin FAU by 15.9
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean
FAU -13
51%
2.9 pts from the number · best FAU -12.5 at fanduel
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Over 57.5
51%
model total 59.4 · best over 57 at pinnacle
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread FAU · model agrees
QB change · Austin Carlisle starting for ULM
Sat, Sep 26, 8:00 PM ET · Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium · 78° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts TLSA 22 – ARK 30
ARK -7 · O/U 50.5
TLSA +225 · ARK -275
7 books · best TLSA +235 fanduel · ARK -270 betonlineag
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Solid
ARK -275
67%
model margin ARK by 7.5
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Slight
ARK -7
50%
0.5 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Over 50.5
51%
model total 52.4
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Under ▼2.3 · model disagrees
Sat, Sep 26, 9:00 PM ET · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 85° · Partly cloudyModel predicts MOST 18 – SMU 43
SMU -34.5 · O/U 60
MOST +2679 · SMU -10000
7 books · best MOST +3500 draftkings · SMU -7000 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
SMU -10000
92%
model margin SMU by 24.3
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
MOST +34.5
54%
10.2 pts from the number · best MOST +35 at pinnacle
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Over 60
50%
model total 61.1 · best over 59.5 at draftkings
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has SMU winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, MOST. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Over ▲1.0 · model agrees
QB change · Skyler Locklear starting for MOST
Sat, Sep 26, 9:00 PM ET · Hornet Stadium · 81° · 11 mph wind · Mostly sunnyModel predicts MASS 25 – SAC 25
MASS -4 · O/U 48.5
MASS -185 · SAC +157
7 books · best MASS -180 betonlineag · SAC +165 hardrockbet
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
MASS -185
51%
model margin MASS by 0.5
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
SAC +4
51%
3.5 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Over 48.5
51%
model total 50.3
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has MASS winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, SAC. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread SAC ▲1.8 · model agrees
Sat, Sep 26, 9:00 PM ET · Sun Bowl · 83° · Mostly clearModel predicts ORST 31 – UTEP 31
ORST -10.5 · O/U 56
ORST -475 · UTEP +360
7 books · best ORST -440 draftkings · UTEP +375 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
UTEP +360
51%
model margin UTEP by 0.3
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
UTEP +10.5
54%
10.8 pts from the number · best UTEP +11.5 at hardrockbet
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 56
52%
model total 62.4 · best over 55.5 at pinnacle
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread UTEP ▲1.0 · model agreesTotal Over ▲1.3 ⚡ · model agrees
QB change · EJ Colson starting for UTEP
Sat, Sep 26, 10:00 PM ET · Valley Children's Stadium · 87° · Mostly clearModel predicts RICE 11 – FRES 28
FRES -13.5 · O/U 44.5
RICE +421 · FRES -565
7 books · best RICE +475 hardrockbet · FRES -550 draftkings
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
FRES -565
83%
model margin FRES by 16.1
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean
FRES -13.5
51%
2.6 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 44.5
52%
model total 38.9
QB change · Jayden Mandal starting for FRES
Sat, Sep 26, 10:30 PM ET · Mackay Stadium · 74° · 11 mph wind · Intermittent cloudsModel predicts AFA 25 – NEV 19
AFA -5.5 · O/U 49.5
AFA -225 · NEV +185
7 books · best AFA -220 fanduel · NEV +190 draftkings
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Solid
AFA -225
62%
model margin AFA by 5.4
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Slight
NEV +5.5
50%
0.1 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 49.5
52%
model total 44.4 · best under 50.5 at fanduel
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has AFA winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, NEV. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread AFA ▼1.3 · model disagreesTotal Over ▲0.5 · model disagrees
Rest AFA 14d · NEV 7d
Sat, Sep 26, 10:30 PM ET · Stanford Stadium · 67° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts GT 24 – STAN 25
GT -3.5 · O/U 48
GT -175 · STAN +145
7 books · best GT -165 betonlineag · STAN +147 pinnacle
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
STAN +145
51%
model margin STAN by 0.3
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
STAN +3.5
51%
3.8 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Over 48
50%
model total 49.2 · best over 47.5 at draftkings
QB change · Alberto Mendoza starting for GT
Sat, Sep 26, 11:00 PM ET · Husky Stadium · 57° · Partly cloudyModel predicts MINN 13 – WASH 32
WASH -10 · O/U 45.5
MINN +302 · WASH -386
7 books · best MINN +325 hardrockbet · WASH -375 betmgm
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
WASH -386
87%
model margin WASH by 19.4
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
WASH -10
53%
9.4 pts from the number · best WASH -9.5 at fanduel
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Slight
Over 45.5
50%
model total 45.6
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread WASH ▲1.3 · model agreesTotal Over ▲0.5 · model agrees
Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated: when the model says 70%, it has been right about 70% of the time. Spread and total calls are leans, shown so you can see the model's number against the market; every pick is locked before kickoff and graded on the track record. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.