Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Mason Jones vs MarQuel Mederos

8:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Mason Jonesby DEC64% to win · closed -340
Result: MarQuel Mederos by KO/TKO in Round 2 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
MarQuel Mederos
42% +135
Mason Jones
58% -135
How it ends
Mederos by KO/TKO
12.1%
fair +729
Mederos by SUB
2.4%
fair +4063
Mederos by DEC
28.0%
fair +257
Jones by KO/TKO
12.0%
fair +731
Jones by SUB
8.7%
fair +1048
Jones by DEC
36.8%
fair +172

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R119.0%fair +426
Ends in R210.5%fair +857
Ends in R35.7%fair +1640
Goes distance64.8%fair -184
How this fight plays out

The model makes Jones a narrow 58% favorite. Expect Jones to chase the takedown (3.2/15 min at 55%) while Mederos tries to keep it standing behind 83% takedown defense. Jones's most likely path is on the scorecards (37%), and the fight goes the distance 65% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.