Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Alberto Montes vs Tommy McMillen

8:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Tommy McMillenby KO/TKO72% to win · closed -175
Result: Tommy McMillen by KO/TKO in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Tommy McMillen
80% -408
Alberto Montes
20% +408
How it ends
McMillen by KO/TKO
40.5%
fair +147
McMillen by SUB
12.6%
fair +691
McMillen by DEC
27.2%
fair +268
Montes by KO/TKO
2.4%
fair +4137
Montes by SUB
13.3%
fair +652
Montes by DEC
4.0%
fair +2393

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R137.1%fair +169
Ends in R220.4%fair +390
Ends in R311.2%fair +790
Goes distance31.2%fair +220
How this fight plays out

The model makes McMillen a clear 80% favorite. On the feet, McMillen sets the tempo — 10.6 significant strikes a minute to 4.5 — so Montes needs moments, not volume. McMillen is most dangerous early — 9 of 12 tracked wins ended in the first round. McMillen's most likely path is by KO/TKO (40%), and the fight goes the distance 31% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.