Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Eric McConico vs Donte Johnson

7:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Donte Johnsonby KO/TKO80% to win · closed -305
Result: Donte Johnson by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Donte Johnson
84% -513
Eric McConico
16% +513
How it ends
Johnson by KO/TKO
67.2%
fair -205
Johnson by SUB
8.1%
fair +1132
Johnson by DEC
8.4%
fair +1095
McConico by KO/TKO
2.5%
fair +3837
McConico by SUB
4.0%
fair +2384
McConico by DEC
9.7%
fair +927

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R144.2%fair +126
Ends in R224.3%fair +311
Ends in R313.4%fair +648
Goes distance18.1%fair +452
How this fight plays out

The model makes Johnson a clear 84% favorite. Expect Johnson to chase the takedown (1.7/15 min at 100%) while McConico tries to keep it standing behind 69% takedown defense. Johnson is most dangerous early — 7 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round. Johnson's most likely path is by KO/TKO (67%), and the fight goes the distance 18% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.