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SuYoung You vs Cody Chovancek Prediction · UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, Oct 17, 2026

Fight data

Model pick: Cody Chovancek (54%), locked before the start; SuYoung You won (graded a miss).

Final5:00 PM ETUFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Bantamweight
SuYoung You17-4
Cody Chovancek9-1

The model's call

Locked before the fight
54%Cody Chovancekby decision✗ Miss

Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the market's no-vig price.

Result
SuYoung You
By submission in round 3
Closing price
-120
Right at this confidence
62%
Won 41 of 66 called at 50–60%

How it endsThe model's chance of each ending beside the books', round by round and by method.

prices before the fightModel vs market

The model's numbers here are recomputed from today's data; the pick locked before the fight is at the top.

KO/TKOSUBDEC
Chovancek
You

Big number: the model's chance of that ending. Small number under it: the books' no-vig chance (— where they don't price it). Tap a cell for fair and best prices.

Fight clock · still going
54% reach the final bell (books 53%)
0255075100R1R2R3o2.5dist.756154Ended R3 4:19

Solid: the model. Dashed: the books' map. ◇ = a separate two-way price for the same thing: over 2.5 rounds 61% · goes the distance 56%.

Their tracked fights before this one
History
Chovancek3 of 9 to the judges

9-0 in the last 9. 6 of 9 wins inside the distance.

  • WKO/TKO · R3vs Raphael UchegbuSep 2025
  • WDecisionUnified MMA 62May 2025
  • WSubmission · R5Unified MMA 57Jun 2024
  • WKO/TKO · R1Unified MMA 54Dec 2023
  • WDecisionUnified MMA 51Jun 2023
You6 of 10 to the judges

8-2 in the last 10. 2 of 8 wins inside the distance; 2 of 2 losses were finishes.

  • LSubmission · R2vs Elijah SmithMar 2026
  • WDecisionvs Xiao LongAug 2025
  • WDecisionvs AJ CunninghamMar 2025
  • WDecisionUFC Fight Night: Yan vs. FigueiredoNov 2024
  • WDecisionRoad to UFC: Season 3, Episode 5Aug 2024

9 of 19 of their tracked fights went the distance. For this one, the model gave 54% that it goes the distance, the books 53%. History, not a forecast.

How this fight plays outThe model's read of the matchup, in plain sentences from its numbers.

No price is posted for this fight, so the win chance is the model's own: Chovancek narrow at 53%. Expect You to chase the takedown (2.8/15 min at 38%) while Chovancek tries to keep it standing. Chovancek's most likely path is on the scorecards (26%), and the fight goes the distance 54% of the time. The live danger for Chovancek: You finishes 35% of wins by submission and Chovancek has been submitted in 100% of losses.

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Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the sportsbooks' no-vig price. The model's own read (recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup) was tested on fights it was not tuned on and decides bouts nobody has priced. Model reads, not personalized advice. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links are plain links, not affiliate links: no sportsbook pays us.