Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Shamil Gaziev vs Kennedy Nzechukwu

5:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Kennedy Nzechukwuby KO/TKO60% to win · closed +110
Result: Shamil Gaziev by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Kennedy Nzechukwu
61% -157
Shamil Gaziev
39% +157
How it ends
Nzechukwu by KO/TKO
53.2%
fair -114
Nzechukwu by SUB
1.8%
fair +5354
Nzechukwu by DEC
6.1%
fair +1536
Gaziev by KO/TKO
25.7%
fair +289
Gaziev by SUB
3.0%
fair +3230
Gaziev by DEC
10.2%
fair +881

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R145.2%fair +121
Ends in R224.8%fair +302
Ends in R313.7%fair +632
Goes distance16.3%fair +513
How this fight plays out

The model makes Nzechukwu a solid 61% favorite. On the feet, Nzechukwu sets the tempo — 4.8 significant strikes a minute to 3.2 — so Gaziev needs moments, not volume. Nzechukwu is most dangerous early — 2 of 5 tracked wins ended in the first round. Nzechukwu's most likely path is by KO/TKO (53%), and the fight goes the distance 16% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.