Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Adrian Yanez vs Cody Garbrandt

7:40 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Adrian Yanezby KO/TKO70% to win · closed -360
Result: Adrian Yanez by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Cody Garbrandt
24% +320
Adrian Yanez
76% -320
How it ends
Garbrandt by KO/TKO
7.6%
fair +1218
Garbrandt by SUB
0.9%
fair +11468
Garbrandt by DEC
15.3%
fair +552
Yanez by KO/TKO
65.8%
fair -192
Yanez by SUB
2.8%
fair +3443
Yanez by DEC
7.6%
fair +1212

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R141.6%fair +140
Ends in R222.9%fair +337
Ends in R312.6%fair +695
Goes distance23.0%fair +336
How this fight plays out

The model makes Yanez a clear 76% favorite. On the feet, Yanez sets the tempo — 5.7 significant strikes a minute to 2.6 — so Garbrandt needs moments, not volume. Yanez is most dangerous early — 5 of 8 tracked wins ended in the first round. Yanez's most likely path is by KO/TKO (66%), and the fight goes the distance 23% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.