Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway

11:20 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Max Hollowayby KO/TKO60% to win · closed -280
Result: Max Holloway by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Max Holloway
59% -141
Conor McGregor
41% +141
How it ends
Holloway by KO/TKO
43.6%
fair +129
Holloway by SUB
3.5%
fair +2758
Holloway by DEC
11.4%
fair +774
McGregor by KO/TKO
23.7%
fair +322
McGregor by SUB
1.5%
fair +6353
McGregor by DEC
16.2%
fair +518

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R133.3%fair +200
Ends in R218.3%fair +446
Ends in R310.1%fair +893
Ends in R46.9%fair +1345
Ends in R53.8%fair +2527
Goes distance27.6%fair +262
How this fight plays out

The model makes Holloway a solid 59% favorite. On the feet, Holloway sets the tempo — 6.9 significant strikes a minute to 5.2 — so McGregor needs moments, not volume. McGregor is most dangerous early — 3 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Holloway's most likely path is by KO/TKO (44%), and the fight goes the distance 28% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.