Sumudaerji vs Alex Perez
6:00 AM ET· finalModel pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Sumudaerjiby DEC57% to win · closed -201
Result: Sumudaerji by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Alex Perez
41% +141
Sumudaerji
59% -141
How it ends
Perez by KO/TKO
18.5%
fair +442
Perez by SUB
3.2%
fair +3074
Perez by DEC
19.9%
fair +404
Sumudaerji by KO/TKO
2.8%
fair +3471
Sumudaerji by SUB
4.9%
fair +1962
Sumudaerji by DEC
50.9%
fair -104
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
When it ends
Ends in R115.8%fair +533
Ends in R28.7%fair +1051
Ends in R34.8%fair +1993
Goes distance70.7%fair -242
How this fight plays out
The model makes Sumudaerji a solid 59% favorite. Striking volume is near even (3.9 vs 4.4 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Sumudaerji's most likely path is on the scorecards (51%), and the fight goes the distance 71% of the time.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.