Probetrics — Sports Analytics
← UFC picksFight data: tape, stats, form, odds →

José Montanha vs Louie Sutherland

5:00 PM ET· final
Save imageSquare
Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Louie Sutherlandby DEC52% to win · closed +189
Result: José Montanha by SUB in Round 1 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Louie Sutherland
30% +229
José Montanha
70% -229
How it ends
Sutherland by KO/TKO
10.0%
fair +903
Sutherland by SUB
2.0%
fair +4898
Sutherland by DEC
18.4%
fair +443
Montanha by KO/TKO
19.1%
fair +424
Montanha by SUB
38.8%
fair +158
Montanha by DEC
11.7%
fair +754

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R137.7%fair +165
Ends in R220.7%fair +382
Ends in R311.4%fair +776
Goes distance30.1%fair +232
How this fight plays out

The model makes Montanha a solid 70% favorite. On the feet, Montanha sets the tempo — 3.8 significant strikes a minute to 2.8 — so Sutherland needs moments, not volume. Montanha is most dangerous early — 5 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Montanha's most likely path is by submission (39%), and the fight goes the distance 30% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.