Probetrics — Sports Analytics
← UFC picksFight data: tape, stats, form, odds →

Christian Leroy Duncan vs Brendan Allen

8:00 PM ET· scheduled
Save imageSquare
Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.
Model pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
Christian Leroy Duncanby DEC
61% to win · 36% that it’s by DEC · 66% this goes the distance
Model fair price -155
Probetrics fight model
Brendan Allen
39% +155
Christian Leroy Duncan
61% -155
How it ends
Allen by KO/TKO
7.8%
fair +1176
Allen by SUB
1.4%
fair +6814
Allen by DEC
30.0%
fair +234
Duncan by KO/TKO
21.9%
fair +356
Duncan by SUB
3.3%
fair +2951
Duncan by DEC
35.5%
fair +181

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R115.9%fair +530
Ends in R28.7%fair +1046
Ends in R34.8%fair +1984
Ends in R43.3%fair +2931
Ends in R51.8%fair +5411
Goes distance65.5%fair -190
How this fight plays out

The model makes Duncan a solid 61% favorite. Expect Allen to chase the takedown (1.7/15 min at 43%) while Duncan tries to keep it standing behind 58% takedown defense. Duncan's most likely path is on the scorecards (36%), and the fight goes the distance 66% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.