Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Alexander Poppeck vs Jovan Leka

10:00 AM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Jovan Lekaby KO/TKO61% to win · closed -250
Result: Jovan Leka by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Jovan Leka
72% -257
Alexander Poppeck
28% +257
How it ends
Leka by KO/TKO
45.8%
fair +118
Leka by SUB
14.5%
fair +592
Leka by DEC
11.7%
fair +753
Poppeck by KO/TKO
10.1%
fair +888
Poppeck by SUB
4.3%
fair +2243
Poppeck by DEC
13.6%
fair +635

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R140.3%fair +148
Ends in R222.2%fair +351
Ends in R312.2%fair +720
Goes distance25.3%fair +295
How this fight plays out

The model makes Leka a clear 72% favorite. Poppeck will out-work him on volume (4.1 vs 3.0/min) — Leka's route is a finish, not a points battle. Leka is most dangerous early — 5 of 11 tracked wins ended in the first round. Leka's most likely path is by KO/TKO (46%), and the fight goes the distance 25% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.