Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Michael Oliveira vs Oban Elliott

10:00 AM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Michael Oliveiraby KO/TKO70% to win · closed -325
Result: Michael Oliveira by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Oban Elliott
20% +404
Michael Oliveira
80% -404
How it ends
Elliott by KO/TKO
7.1%
fair +1300
Elliott by SUB
1.5%
fair +6537
Elliott by DEC
11.2%
fair +795
Oliveira by KO/TKO
63.6%
fair -175
Oliveira by SUB
6.3%
fair +1495
Oliveira by DEC
10.3%
fair +869

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R142.4%fair +136
Ends in R223.3%fair +329
Ends in R312.8%fair +680
Goes distance21.5%fair +365
How this fight plays out

The model makes Oliveira a clear 80% favorite. On the feet, Oliveira sets the tempo — 5.9 significant strikes a minute to 3.7 — so Elliott needs moments, not volume. Oliveira is most dangerous early — 7 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round. Oliveira's most likely path is by KO/TKO (64%), and the fight goes the distance 21% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.