Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Hector Santiago vs Lawrence Lui

3:00 AM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Lawrence Luiby DEC65% to win · closed -300
Result: Hector Santiago by KO/TKO in Round 2 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Lawrence Lui
65% -185
Hector Santiago
35% +185
How it ends
Lui by KO/TKO
9.2%
fair +982
Lui by SUB
17.4%
fair +476
Lui by DEC
38.3%
fair +161
Santiago by KO/TKO
14.1%
fair +608
Santiago by SUB
2.9%
fair +3340
Santiago by DEC
18.1%
fair +452

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R123.6%fair +324
Ends in R213.0%fair +672
Ends in R37.1%fair +1303
Goes distance56.4%fair -129
How this fight plays out

The model makes Lui a solid 65% favorite. Expect Lui to chase the takedown (4.2/15 min at 47%) while Santiago tries to keep it standing. Santiago is most dangerous early — 4 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Lui's most likely path is on the scorecards (38%), and the fight goes the distance 56% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.