Predictions

NFL picks and predictions, Week 10

Winner calls graded each week; the model's own margin and total for context.

The model

Winners called

67%Won–lost 90–45135 graded

90% range 60–73%

When it says 70–80%, it has won 75% (36 picks).

On games with a price, the win chance is built on the betting market's number, so these picks usually match the favorite.

How the record is checked

Won 90. Its stated probabilities expected 87.3 (90% range 78.3–96.3): inside that range, in line with its probabilities.

By method: model alone 20–13 (33), market-anchored 70–32 (102).

Backtest, not in the record: 63.7% of 1,693 games (walk-forward backtest of the model alone, 2020–25 seasons).

Pro

7-day free trial for new subscribers · cancel anytimeStart 7-day free trial

Every pick comes with its win chance and the reason behind it, locked before the start and graded in public. The record is always free.See a real Pro page: NFL: Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings, a finished game →