Predictions
NFL picks
Winner, spread and total on every game, graded each week.
20/32
Winners called
63%
Locked before the start, graded after
Week 3: three calls on every game (winner, spread, total) from one forecast, locked before kickoff and graded after. 16 of 16 locked.
Thu, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ET · Lambeau Field · 59° LIVE 24–7· Q4 13:39
GB -4.5 · O/U 43.5
ATL +205 · GB -247
7 books · best ATL +210 betmgm · GB -238 draftkings
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
GB -247
71%
model margin GB by 7.5
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean
GB -4.5
51%
3.0 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Slight
Over 43.5
50%
model total 44.2 · best over 43 at betmgm
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread ATL ▼2.8 · model disagreesTotal Under ▼1.0 ⚡ · model disagrees
Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · Highmark Stadium · 67° · 11 mph wind · Intermittent cloudsModel predicts LAC 17 – BUF 30
BUF -7.5 · O/U 50
LAC +275 · BUF -345
7 books · best LAC +295 fanduel · BUF -337 pinnacle
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
BUF -345
83%
model margin BUF by 13.0
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
BUF -7.5
52%
5.5 pts from the number · best BUF -7 at draftkings
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 50
52%
model total 46.2 · best under 50.5 at draftkings
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread BUF ▲0.5 · model agrees
Rest LAC 7d · BUF 10dQB change · Justin Herbert starting for LAC
Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · Huntington Bank Field · 69° · 11 mph wind · Mostly sunnyModel predicts CAR 20 – CLE 21
CAR -2.5 · O/U 42
CAR -146 · CLE +125
7 books · best CAR -142 fanduel · CLE +130 bovada
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
CLE +125
55%
model margin CLE by 1.6
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
CLE +2.5
52%
4.1 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Slight
Under 42
50%
model total 41.1 · best under 42.5 at draftkings
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread CLE ▲0.5 · model agreesTotal Over ▲2.3 ⚡ · model disagrees
Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · Ford Field · IndoorsModel predicts NYJ 20 – DET 30
DET -6.5 · O/U 47.5
NYJ +245 · DET -300
7 books · best NYJ +265 fanduel · DET -290 bovada
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
DET -300
78%
model margin DET by 10.3
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
DET -6.5
52%
3.8 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Over 47.5
51%
model total 50.3
Rest NYJ 7d · DET 10d
Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium · IndoorsModel predicts HOU 27 – IND 25
HOU -1.5 · O/U 42.5
HOU -125 · IND +110
7 books · best HOU -121 betonlineag · IND +112 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
HOU -125
56%
model margin HOU by 1.9
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Slight
HOU -1.5
50%
0.4 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 42.5
54%
model total 52.5
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread IND ▲1.3 · model disagreesTotal Under ▼1.3 · model disagrees
Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium · 86° · Mostly sunnyModel predicts KC 22 – MIA 19
KC -10.5 · O/U 46
KC -650 · MIA +476
7 books · best KC -625 pinnacle · MIA +520 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Solid
KC -650
61%
model margin KC by 3.8
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
MIA +10.5
53%
6.7 pts from the number · best MIA +11.5 at pinnacle
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 46
52%
model total 41.2 · best under 46.5 at hardrockbet
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has KC winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, MIA. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread KC · model disagreesTotal Over ▲0.8 · model disagrees
QB change · Malik Willis starting for MIA
Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium · 62° · 18 mph wind · 62% precip · RainModel predicts TEN 15 – NYG 22
NYG -2.5 · O/U 38.5
TEN +118 · NYG -138
7 books · best TEN +120 bovada · NYG -130 draftkings
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Solid
NYG -138
70%
model margin NYG by 7.1
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
NYG -2.5
52%
4.6 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Under 38.5
51%
model total 36.9
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread TEN ▼2.0 · model disagreesTotal Under ▼3.0 · model agrees
Rest TEN 7d · NYG 6d
Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium · 67° · 10 mph wind · Intermittent cloudsModel predicts CIN 20 – PIT 20
CIN -3.5 · O/U 42.5
CIN -190 · PIT +160
7 books · best CIN -185 bovada · PIT +165 betonlineag
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
PIT +160
50%
model margin PIT by 0.1
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
PIT +3.5
52%
3.6 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Under 42.5
51%
model total 40.7 · best under 43 at pinnacle
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Under ▼0.5 · model agrees
QB change · Aaron Rodgers starting for PIT
Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · Northwest Stadium · 67° · 12 mph wind · Partly sunnyModel predicts SEA 26 – WSH 14
SEA -7.5 · O/U 40.5
SEA -360 · WSH +285
7 books · best SEA -347 pinnacle · WSH +310 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
SEA -360
81%
model margin SEA by 11.6
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
SEA -7.5
52%
4.1 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Slight
Under 40.5
50%
model total 40.1
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread SEA ▼3.0 · model agreesTotal Under ▼0.8 ⚡ · model agrees
QB change · Jayden Daniels starting for WSH
Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · EverBank Stadium · 81° · Partly sunnyModel predicts NE 18 – JAX 20
JAX -3 · O/U 45.5
NE +130 · JAX -155
7 books · best NE +136 pinnacle · JAX -154 pinnacle
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
JAX -155
56%
model margin JAX by 1.9
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean
NE +3
50%
1.1 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 45.5
53%
model total 38.7 · best under 46 at betonlineag
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has JAX winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, NE. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Over ▲0.5 · model disagrees
QB change · Drake Maye starting for NE
Sun, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET · Levi's Stadium · 68° · 71% precip · Mostly cloudyModel predicts ARI 18 – SF 30
SF -8.5 · O/U 47.5
ARI +340 · SF -450
7 books · best ARI +385 fanduel · SF -388 pinnacle
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
SF -450
80%
model margin SF by 11.5
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean
SF -8.5
51%
3.0 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Slight
Over 47.5
50%
model total 47.7
QB change · Jacoby Brissett starting for ARI
Sun, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium · 87° · Intermittent cloudsModel predicts MIN 22 – TB 14
MIN -1.5 · O/U 42.5
MIN -124 · TB +105
7 books · best MIN -117 pinnacle · TB +106 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
MIN -124
71%
model margin MIN by 7.4
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
MIN -1.5
53%
5.9 pts from the number · best MIN -1 at bovada
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 42.5
53%
model total 36.3 · best under 43 at pinnacle
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread TB ▲0.5 · model disagreesTotal Under ▼1.0 · model agrees
QB change · Baker Mayfield starting for TB
Sun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET · Maracanã Stadium · 72°Model predicts BAL 29 – DAL 25
BAL -3.5 · O/U 52.5
BAL -185 · DAL +155
7 books · best BAL -174 fanduel · DAL +162 pinnacle
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Solid
BAL -185
61%
model margin BAL by 3.7
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Slight
BAL -3.5
50%
0.2 pts from the number · best BAL -3 at betonlineag
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Over 52.5
51%
model total 53.7
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Over ▲0.8 · model agrees
Sun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET · Caesars Superdome · IndoorsModel predicts LV 18 – NO 23
NO -3 · O/U 43.5
LV +153 · NO -175
7 books · best LV +155 bovada · NO -172 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Solid
NO -175
64%
model margin NO by 4.8
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean
NO -3
51%
1.8 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Under 43.5
51%
model total 41.4 · best under 44 at pinnacle
Sun, Sep 27, 8:20 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High · 82° · 11 mph wind · Intermittent cloudsModel predicts LAR 19 – DEN 22
LAR -2.5 · O/U 44.5
LAR -135 · DEN +115
7 books · best LAR -134 pinnacle · DEN +122 betonlineag
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
DEN +115
58%
model margin DEN by 2.8
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
DEN +2.5
52%
5.3 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 44.5
52%
model total 40.5 · best under 45 at pinnacle
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Total Under ▼0.8 · model agrees
Rest LAR 6d · DEN 7d
Mon, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET · Soldier Field · 66° · ClearModel predicts PHI 22 – CHI 21
PHI -4.5 · O/U 41.5
PHI -230 · CHI +192
7 books · best PHI -223 pinnacle · CHI +197 pinnacle
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
PHI -230
54%
model margin PHI by 1.3
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
CHI +4.5
51%
3.2 pts from the number · best CHI +5.5 at hardrockbet
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Over 41.5
51%
model total 43.4 · best over 41 at bovada
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has PHI winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, CHI. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.
Sharp readWhere Pinnacle, the market maker, has moved since the open or sits against the retail books. ▲ toward the home side or the over, ▼ toward the away side or the under; ⚡ means retail followed within six hours. A read, not a pick: it is being graded on its own until January 2027.Spread PHI ▼4.0 · model disagreesTotal Under ▼4.5 ⚡ · model disagrees
QB change · Caleb Williams starting for CHI
Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated: when the model says 70%, it has been right about 70% of the time. Spread and total calls are leans, shown so you can see the model's number against the market; every pick is locked before kickoff and graded on the track record. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.