Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Igor Cavalcanti vs Oscar Ravello

7:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Igor Cavalcantiby KO/TKO57% to win · closed -169
Result: Igor Cavalcanti by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Oscar Ravello
40% +152
Igor Cavalcanti
60% -152
How it ends
Ravello by KO/TKO
12.0%
fair +732
Ravello by SUB
12.6%
fair +691
Ravello by DEC
15.0%
fair +569
Cavalcanti by KO/TKO
49.5%
fair +102
Cavalcanti by SUB
4.9%
fair +1946
Cavalcanti by DEC
6.0%
fair +1556

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R142.7%fair +134
Ends in R223.5%fair +326
Ends in R312.9%fair +675
Goes distance21.0%fair +376
How this fight plays out

The model makes Cavalcanti a solid 60% favorite. Cavalcanti is most dangerous early — 10 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round. Cavalcanti's most likely path is by KO/TKO (49%), and the fight goes the distance 21% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.