Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Joseph Morales vs Brandon Moreno

5:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Joseph Moralesby DEC54% to win · closed -112
Result: Brandon Moreno by DEC in Round 3 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Brandon Moreno
48% +108
Joseph Morales
52% -108
How it ends
Moreno by KO/TKO
2.7%
fair +3581
Moreno by SUB
1.7%
fair +5910
Moreno by DEC
43.6%
fair +129
Morales by KO/TKO
2.3%
fair +4264
Morales by SUB
14.1%
fair +609
Morales by DEC
35.6%
fair +181

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R111.2%fair +791
Ends in R26.2%fair +1521
Ends in R33.4%fair +2846
Goes distance79.2%fair -381
How this fight plays out

The model makes Morales a narrow 52% favorite. Moreno throws more (4.2 vs 2.6/min), but the model sees Morales edging rounds on effectiveness — absorbing 3.1/min to Moreno's 4.0. Morales's most likely path is on the scorecards (36%), and the fight goes the distance 79% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.