Probetrics — Sports Analytics

Brunno Ferreira vs Edmen Shahbazyan

5:30 PM ET· final
Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Edmen Shahbazyanby KO/TKO54% to win · closed -170
Result: Edmen Shahbazyan by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Edmen Shahbazyan
59% -142
Brunno Ferreira
41% +142
How it ends
Shahbazyan by KO/TKO
31.7%
fair +215
Shahbazyan by SUB
3.7%
fair +2594
Shahbazyan by DEC
23.2%
fair +331
Ferreira by KO/TKO
7.4%
fair +1251
Ferreira by SUB
16.8%
fair +494
Ferreira by DEC
17.1%
fair +484

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R132.2%fair +210
Ends in R217.7%fair +464
Ends in R39.7%fair +926
Goes distance40.3%fair +148
How this fight plays out

The model makes Shahbazyan a solid 59% favorite. Striking volume is near even (4.1 vs 3.4 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Shahbazyan is most dangerous early — 4 of 7 tracked wins ended in the first round. Shahbazyan's most likely path is by KO/TKO (32%), and the fight goes the distance 40% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Shahbazyan: 60% of Ferreira's wins come by knockout and 50% of Shahbazyan's losses have come the same way.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.