Late replacement — this matchup was made 2 days out— the model prices time since a fighter's last bout, never how long they had to prepare for this one. The books do price it, so treat any gap between us and them on this fight as our blind spot, not their mistake.
Thin market — no sportsbook has priced this fight. Every probability below is model-only, with nothing to check it against.
Model pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
Luis Hernandezby SUB~ Round 1
71% to win · 39% that it’s by SUB · 71% it ends inside the distance, most likely around Round 1
Model fair price -242
Probetrics fight model
Sedriques Dumas
29% +242
Luis Hernandez
71% -242
How it ends
Dumas by KO/TKO
4.8%
fair +1977
Dumas by SUB
2.5%
fair +3944
Dumas by DEC
22.0%
fair +355
Hernandez by KO/TKO
24.2%
fair +313
Hernandez by SUB
39.4%
fair +154
Hernandez by DEC
7.1%
fair +1314
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
When it ends
Ends in R138.3%fair +161
Ends in R221.1%fair +375
Ends in R311.6%fair +763
Goes distance29.1%fair +244
How this fight plays out
The model makes Hernandez a clear 71% favorite. Hernandez is most dangerous early — 5 of 8 tracked wins ended in the first round. Hernandez's most likely path is by submission (39%), and the fight goes the distance 29% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
