Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Rodolfo Bellato vs Christian Edwards

5:00 PM ET· scheduled
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Model pickThe fight model's single most likely outcome: predicted winner, their most likely method of victory, and whether it ends inside the distance. Full probability breakdown below.
Rodolfo Bellatoby KO/TKO~ Round 1
56% to win · 33% that it’s by KO/TKO · 76% it ends inside the distance, most likely around Round 1
Model fair price -126 · best book price -175
Longest single script: Edwards by KO/TKO (37.4%) — Bellato's win chances split across methods, so the other side's one likeliest path outscores each of theirs.The pick above is the predicted winner and their most likely method. But across all six winner-and-method combos, this one single outcome carries the most probability — worth a look on method-of-victory markets, where it usually pays plus-money.
Probetrics fight model
Christian Edwards
44% +126
Rodolfo Bellato
56% -126

Books price Edwards at 38% to win (vig removed) — our model has value of +6.3% on EdwardsEdge = our model's win probability minus the market's implied probability (after removing the sportsbook's margin). Positive = the model thinks this fighter wins more often than the odds suggest, so their price is the value side. Bigger gaps deserve more skepticism, not more money.

How it ends
Edwards by KO/TKO
37.4%
fair +168
book +390
Edwards by SUB
2.4%
fair +4064
book +2000
Edwards by DEC
4.4%
fair +2163
book +450
Bellato by KO/TKO
32.8%
fair +205
book +270
Bellato by SUB
3.7%
fair +2574
book +540
Bellato by DEC
19.3%
fair +419
book +310

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R141.2%fair +143 · +210
Ends in R222.7%fair +341 · +390
Ends in R312.5%fair +703 · +650
Goes distance23.7%fair +322 · +150
How this fight plays out

The model makes Bellato a narrow 56% favorite, cooler than the market's 62% — the value sits with Edwards. On the feet, Bellato sets the tempo — 5.1 significant strikes a minute to 3.3 — so Edwards needs moments, not volume. Bellato is most dangerous early — 5 of 8 tracked wins ended in the first round. Bellato's most likely path is by KO/TKO (33%), and the fight goes the distance 24% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Bellato: 63% of Edwards's wins come by knockout and 67% of Bellato's losses have come the same way.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.