Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Modestino Rodrigues vs Brandon Holmes

7:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Modestino Rodriguesby KO/TKO55% to win · closed +153
Result: Modestino Rodrigues by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Brandon Holmes
37% +168
Modestino Rodrigues
63% -168
How it ends
Holmes by KO/TKO
26.9%
fair +271
Holmes by SUB
3.3%
fair +2923
Holmes by DEC
7.1%
fair +1313
Rodrigues by KO/TKO
52.9%
fair -112
Rodrigues by SUB
3.5%
fair +2738
Rodrigues by DEC
6.3%
fair +1495

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R146.8%fair +114
Ends in R225.7%fair +289
Ends in R314.1%fair +607
Goes distance13.3%fair +649
How this fight plays out

The model makes Rodrigues a solid 63% favorite. Rodrigues is most dangerous early — 6 of 8 tracked wins ended in the first round. Rodrigues's most likely path is by KO/TKO (53%), and the fight goes the distance 13% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Rodrigues: 67% of Holmes's wins come by knockout and 100% of Rodrigues's losses have come the same way.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.