Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Nikita Krylov vs Robert Whittaker

8:35 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Nikita Krylovby KO/TKO67% to win · closed +120
Result: Robert Whittaker by KO/TKO in Round 3 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Robert Whittaker
42% +139
Nikita Krylov
58% -139
How it ends
Whittaker by KO/TKO
28.3%
fair +253
Whittaker by SUB
2.4%
fair +4059
Whittaker by DEC
11.1%
fair +801
Krylov by KO/TKO
21.9%
fair +357
Krylov by SUB
19.1%
fair +423
Krylov by DEC
17.2%
fair +480

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R138.7%fair +158
Ends in R221.3%fair +370
Ends in R311.7%fair +754
Goes distance28.3%fair +253
How this fight plays out

The model makes Krylov a solid 58% favorite. Expect Krylov to chase the takedown (2.7/15 min at 40%) while Whittaker tries to keep it standing behind 72% takedown defense. Krylov's most likely path is by KO/TKO (22%), and the fight goes the distance 28% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.