Gregory Rodrigues vs Anthony Hernandez
8:00 PM ET· final“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
The model makes Hernandez a narrow 56% favorite. Expect Hernandez to chase the takedown (5.7/15 min at 48%) while Rodrigues tries to keep it standing behind 63% takedown defense. Rodrigues is most dangerous early — 4 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round. Hernandez's most likely path is by submission (22%), and the fight goes the distance 36% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Hernandez: 63% of Rodrigues's wins come by knockout and 67% of Hernandez's losses have come the same way.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.