Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Christian Natividad vs Colton Loud

7:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Christian Natividadby DEC59% to win · closed -300
Result: Christian Natividad by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Colton Loud
47% +115
Christian Natividad
53% -115
How it ends
Loud by KO/TKO
14.1%
fair +609
Loud by SUB
17.1%
fair +485
Loud by DEC
15.4%
fair +549
Natividad by KO/TKO
19.0%
fair +426
Natividad by SUB
5.5%
fair +1711
Natividad by DEC
28.9%
fair +246

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R130.1%fair +232
Ends in R216.5%fair +504
Ends in R39.1%fair +999
Goes distance44.3%fair +126
How this fight plays out

The model makes Natividad a narrow 53% favorite. Natividad is most dangerous early — 4 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round. Natividad's most likely path is on the scorecards (29%), and the fight goes the distance 44% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.