Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Song Yadong vs Umar Nurmagomedov

6:00 AM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Umar Nurmagomedovby DEC72% to win · closed -595
Result: Song Yadong by KO/TKO in Round 2 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Umar Nurmagomedov
69% -220
Song Yadong
31% +220
How it ends
Nurmagomedov by KO/TKO
1.4%
fair +7172
Nurmagomedov by SUB
9.7%
fair +929
Nurmagomedov by DEC
57.7%
fair -136
Yadong by KO/TKO
7.5%
fair +1239
Yadong by SUB
6.3%
fair +1497
Yadong by DEC
17.5%
fair +471

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R111.4%fair +776
Ends in R26.3%fair +1493
Ends in R33.5%fair +2796
Ends in R42.4%fair +4113
Ends in R51.3%fair +7560
Goes distance75.2%fair -303
How this fight plays out

The model makes Nurmagomedov a solid 69% favorite. Expect Nurmagomedov to chase the takedown (3.8/15 min at 47%) while Yadong tries to keep it standing behind 79% takedown defense. Nurmagomedov's most likely path is on the scorecards (58%), and the fight goes the distance 75% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.