Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Eduarda Moura vs Casey O'Neill

5:30 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Casey O'Neillby DEC56% to win · closed -215
Result: Casey O'Neill by SUB in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Casey O'Neill
59% -143
Eduarda Moura
41% +143
How it ends
O'Neill by KO/TKO
9.7%
fair +931
O'Neill by SUB
10.6%
fair +839
O'Neill by DEC
38.4%
fair +160
Moura by KO/TKO
5.8%
fair +1634
Moura by SUB
5.8%
fair +1617
Moura by DEC
29.6%
fair +238

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R117.2%fair +480
Ends in R29.5%fair +955
Ends in R35.2%fair +1818
Goes distance68.1%fair -213
How this fight plays out

The model makes O'Neill a solid 59% favorite. Expect Moura to chase the takedown (3.2/15 min at 35%) while O'Neill tries to keep it standing behind 67% takedown defense. O'Neill's most likely path is on the scorecards (38%), and the fight goes the distance 68% of the time. The live danger for O'Neill: Moura finishes 42% of wins by submission and O'Neill has been submitted in 50% of losses.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.