Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Eduardo Chapolin vs Charles Johnson

7:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Eduardo Chapolinby DEC60% to win
Result: Charles Johnson by SUB in Round 3 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Charles Johnson
34% +193
Eduardo Chapolin
66% -193
How it ends
Johnson by KO/TKO
5.8%
fair +1621
Johnson by SUB
15.8%
fair +534
Johnson by DEC
12.6%
fair +693
Chapolin by KO/TKO
18.0%
fair +455
Chapolin by SUB
7.5%
fair +1241
Chapolin by DEC
40.3%
fair +148

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R125.4%fair +294
Ends in R214.0%fair +616
Ends in R37.7%fair +1201
Goes distance52.9%fair -112
How this fight plays out

The model makes Chapolin a solid 66% favorite. Expect Chapolin to chase the takedown (2.7/15 min at 60%) while Johnson tries to keep it standing behind 66% takedown defense. Chapolin's most likely path is on the scorecards (40%), and the fight goes the distance 53% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.