Julia Polastri vs Jingnan Xiong
3:00 AM ET· finalModel pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Julia Polastriby DEC65% to win · closed -225
Result: Julia Polastri by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Jingnan Xiong
30% +228
Julia Polastri
70% -228
How it ends
Xiong by KO/TKO
0.9%
fair +10494
Xiong by SUB
0.9%
fair +10494
Xiong by DEC
28.6%
fair +250
Polastri by KO/TKO
22.9%
fair +336
Polastri by SUB
5.3%
fair +1801
Polastri by DEC
41.3%
fair +142
“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
When it ends
Ends in R116.2%fair +516
Ends in R28.9%fair +1019
Ends in R34.9%fair +1935
Goes distance69.9%fair -232
How this fight plays out
The model makes Polastri a solid 70% favorite. On the feet, Polastri sets the tempo — 5.9 significant strikes a minute to 4.3 — so Xiong needs moments, not volume. Polastri's most likely path is on the scorecards (41%), and the fight goes the distance 70% of the time.
Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.