Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Kauê Fernandes vs Jalin Turner

9:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Jalin Turnerby DEC51% to win · closed -110
Result: Jalin Turner by KO/TKO in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Jalin Turner
47% +113
Kauê Fernandes
53% -113
How it ends
Turner by KO/TKO
37.7%
fair +165
Turner by SUB
1.9%
fair +5207
Turner by DEC
7.4%
fair +1247
Fernandes by KO/TKO
35.3%
fair +183
Fernandes by SUB
3.1%
fair +3096
Fernandes by DEC
14.5%
fair +588

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R142.1%fair +137
Ends in R223.2%fair +332
Ends in R312.7%fair +685
Goes distance21.9%fair +356
How this fight plays out

The model makes Fernandes a narrow 53% favorite. Turner will out-work him on volume (5.6 vs 4.2/min) — Fernandes's route is a finish, not a points battle. Fernandes is most dangerous early — 5 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round. Fernandes's most likely path is by KO/TKO (35%), and the fight goes the distance 22% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.