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Football track record · Model

How the football model is tested

How the model is tested: picks lock before kickoff, are graded after, and scored only on unseen seasons.
Through Oct 26, 2026, the NFL model has called 65 of 106 graded winners (61.3%), every pick locked before kickoff and graded in public. The college football model has called 387 of 509 (76.0%).
Locked first

Every pick is written before kickoff and graded after. Nothing about the record is edited afterward.

Tested on unseen seasons

Walk-forward: each game is priced only from information available before it, and a change ships only if it holds up on held-out seasons.

Winners are the record

The winner call is the product, and where a game is priced it is built mostly on the betting market's no-vig price. The model makes no spread or total pick; its margin and total are shown beside the market's for context.

NFL

Every graded NFL pick

The model

NFL · winners calledOnly picks locked before the start count. A pick made later, or priced after the fact, never enters it.

Locked before the start, graded after
Won–lost
65–41
Win rateWhere the true win rate likely sits (90% range). Under 30 picks, too early to read.
61%
90% range 53–69%
Graded
106
picks
Expected winsThe sum of its stated win probabilities. If those are right, wins land in this range 9 times in 10.
67.8
90% range 59.8–75.8
Win rate 61%90% rangeIts probabilities said 64%

Won 65. Its stated probabilities expected 67.8 (90% range 59.8–75.8): inside that range, in line with its probabilities.

When it says 70–80%, it has won 70% (27 picks). Its stated chances, read against what happened.

NFL · backtest winnersEvery game priced only from what was known before it, then scored once. Kept apart from the record.

Walk-forward backtest of the model alone, 2020–25 seasons: not in the record
Won–lost
1,079–614
Win rateWhere the true win rate likely sits (90% range). Under 30 picks, too early to read.
63.7%
90% range 61.8–65.6%
Graded
1,693
picks
Expected winsThe sum of its stated win probabilities. If those are right, wins land in this range 9 times in 10.
1,100
90% range 1,068–1,131
Win rate 63.7%90% rangeIts probabilities said 65.0%

Won 1,079. Its stated probabilities expected 1,100 (90% range 1,068–1,131): inside that range, in line with its probabilities.

NFL: when it said 70%, did it win 70%?Each lane is a confidence band. Calibrated means the dot lands in its gray band; the bar shows luck's range.

live and backtest
  • Said 50–60%
    51% won 22 of 4390% range 39–63%backtest 54% of 656
  • Said 60–70%
    67% won 22 of 3390% range 52–78%backtest 64% of 517
  • Said 70–80%
    70% won 19 of 2790% range 55–82%backtest 71% of 360
  • Said 80–90%
    67% won 2 of 3only 3 graded: too few to judgebacktest 84% of 142
  • Said 90–100%
    no live picks yetbacktest 94% of 18
The band it statedLive win rate90% rangeBacktest win rate

Live picks, locked before the start. Backtest: walk-forward backtest of the model alone, 2020–25 seasons, not in the record. Lanes with fewer than 10 graded picks are faded.

NFL backtest by seasonEvery game priced only from what was known before it, reported in full.

2020
174–95 65%n 269 · 60–69%
2021
170–115 60%n 285 · 55–64%
2022
177–107 62%n 284 · 57–67%
2023
177–108 62%n 285 · 57–67%
2024
193–92 68%n 285 · 63–72%
2025
188–97 66%n 285 · 61–70%

College

Every graded college pick

The model

College · winners calledOnly picks locked before the start count. A pick made later, or priced after the fact, never enters it.

Locked before the start, graded after
Won–lost
387–122
Win rateWhere the true win rate likely sits (90% range). Under 30 picks, too early to read.
76%
90% range 73–79%
Graded
509
picks
Expected winsThe sum of its stated win probabilities. If those are right, wins land in this range 9 times in 10.
377.5
90% range 362.1–392.9
Win rate 76%90% rangeIts probabilities said 74%

Won 387. Its stated probabilities expected 377.5 (90% range 362.1–392.9): inside that range, in line with its probabilities.

When it says 90–100%, it has won 97% (93 picks). Its stated chances, read against what happened.

College · backtest winnersEvery game priced only from what was known before it, then scored once. Kept apart from the record.

Walk-forward backtest of the model alone, 2024–26 seasons: not in the record
Won–lost
1,342–551
Win rateWhere the true win rate likely sits (90% range). Under 30 picks, too early to read.
70.9%
90% range 69.1–72.6%
Graded
1,893
picks
Expected winsThe sum of its stated win probabilities. If those are right, wins land in this range 9 times in 10.
1,322
90% range 1,291–1,354
Win rate 70.9%90% rangeIts probabilities said 69.9%

Won 1,342. Its stated probabilities expected 1,322 (90% range 1,291–1,354): inside that range, in line with its probabilities.

College: when it said 70%, did it win 70%?Each lane is a confidence band. Calibrated means the dot lands in its gray band; the bar shows luck's range.

live and backtest
  • Said 50–60%
    58% won 64 of 11190% range 50–65%backtest 54% of 548
  • Said 60–70%
    67% won 67 of 10090% range 59–74%backtest 67% of 478
  • Said 70–80%
    74% won 81 of 10990% range 67–81%backtest 76% of 414
  • Said 80–90%
    89% won 85 of 9690% range 82–93%backtest 89% of 279
  • Said 90–100%
    97% won 90 of 9390% range 92–99%backtest 97% of 174
The band it statedLive win rate90% rangeBacktest win rate

Live picks, locked before the start. Backtest: walk-forward backtest of the model alone, 2024–26 seasons, not in the record. Lanes with fewer than 10 graded picks are faded.

College backtest by seasonEvery game priced only from what was known before it, reported in full.

2024
635–284 69%n 919 · 67–72%
2025
679–255 73%n 934 · 70–75%
2026
28–12 70%n 40 · 57–80%

What we don't publishThe method, its parameters and what was tried and rejected stay private. What is always public is the result.Model

The method, its parameters, and what was tried and rejected are not published — that's the part of the work we keep to ourselves. What's always public is the result: every pick locked pre-game, graded after, calibration shown honestly, and nothing about the record edited after the fact.

Line shopping (the best number across every book in the feed on every pick and every board row) is live on every page — you don't need the method published to use it.

The backtest rows were priced before the market-anchored winner call, so they measure the model on its own. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.