Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Iwo Baraniewski vs Alonzo Menifield

9:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Iwo Baraniewskiby KO/TKO76% to win · closed -250
Result: Alonzo Menifield by DEC in Round 3 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Alonzo Menifield
25% +293
Iwo Baraniewski
75% -293
How it ends
Menifield by KO/TKO
6.4%
fair +1450
Menifield by SUB
1.2%
fair +8459
Menifield by DEC
17.8%
fair +462
Baraniewski by KO/TKO
64.0%
fair -178
Baraniewski by SUB
3.1%
fair +3098
Baraniewski by DEC
7.5%
fair +1241

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R140.3%fair +148
Ends in R222.2%fair +351
Ends in R312.2%fair +719
Goes distance25.3%fair +296
How this fight plays out

The model makes Baraniewski a clear 75% favorite. On the feet, Baraniewski sets the tempo — 5.1 significant strikes a minute to 3.8 — so Menifield needs moments, not volume. Baraniewski is most dangerous early — 9 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round. Baraniewski's most likely path is by KO/TKO (64%), and the fight goes the distance 25% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.