Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Guilherme Uriel vs Mario Piazzon

7:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Guilherme Urielby KO/TKO52% to win · closed -148
Result: Guilherme Uriel by SUB in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Mario Piazzon
49% +106
Guilherme Uriel
51% -106
How it ends
Piazzon by KO/TKO
35.5%
fair +181
Piazzon by SUB
6.7%
fair +1383
Piazzon by DEC
6.3%
fair +1492
Uriel by KO/TKO
26.6%
fair +276
Uriel by SUB
19.7%
fair +408
Uriel by DEC
5.1%
fair +1844

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R147.8%fair +109
Ends in R226.3%fair +280
Ends in R314.5%fair +591
Goes distance11.4%fair +775
How this fight plays out

The model makes Uriel a narrow 51% favorite. Uriel is most dangerous early — 8 of 8 tracked wins ended in the first round. Uriel's most likely path is by KO/TKO (27%), and the fight goes the distance 11% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Uriel: 67% of Piazzon's wins come by knockout and 100% of Uriel's losses have come the same way.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.