Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Farid Basharat vs John Garza

6:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Farid Basharatby DEC76% to win · closed -620
Result: Farid Basharat by DEC in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
John Garza
32% +208
Farid Basharat
68% -208
How it ends
Garza by KO/TKO
13.2%
fair +659
Garza by SUB
3.5%
fair +2740
Garza by DEC
15.7%
fair +536
Basharat by KO/TKO
1.4%
fair +7300
Basharat by SUB
13.1%
fair +662
Basharat by DEC
53.1%
fair -113

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R116.8%fair +494
Ends in R29.3%fair +980
Ends in R35.1%fair +1864
Goes distance68.8%fair -221
How this fight plays out

The model makes Basharat a solid 68% favorite. Expect Basharat to chase the takedown (3.3/15 min at 38%) while Garza tries to keep it standing behind 77% takedown defense. Basharat tends to settle in for the long haul — 8 of 12 tracked fights reached the judges. Basharat's most likely path is on the scorecards (53%), and the fight goes the distance 69% of the time.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.