Probetrics — Sports Analytics

Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas

12:00 PM ET· final
Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Oumar Syby KO/TKO66% to win · closed -235
Result: Modestas Bukauskas by KO/TKO in Round 2 — model missed ✗
Probetrics fight model
Modestas Bukauskas
37% +173
Oumar Sy
63% -173
How it ends
Bukauskas by KO/TKO
14.3%
fair +601
Bukauskas by SUB
2.4%
fair +4009
Bukauskas by DEC
19.9%
fair +402
Sy by KO/TKO
34.0%
fair +194
Sy by SUB
15.8%
fair +532
Sy by DEC
13.6%
fair +636

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R135.9%fair +179
Ends in R219.7%fair +406
Ends in R310.9%fair +821
Goes distance33.5%fair +199
How this fight plays out

The model makes Sy a solid 63% favorite. Expect Sy to chase the takedown (2.2/15 min at 35%) while Bukauskas tries to keep it standing behind 88% takedown defense. Sy is most dangerous early — 6 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round. Sy's most likely path is by KO/TKO (34%), and the fight goes the distance 33% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.