College Football · Track record
College Football: every call, graded
Winner, spread and total — locked before kickoff, graded after, with the backtest underneath. The parts that don’t work are on the page too. How the model works →
Locked before kickoff Only picks written before the game started count here. Anything scored after the fact is in the backtest section below, kept separate on purpose.
31/37
Winners · 84%
13-24
Against the spread · 35%
vs opener 13-22 · 37%CLV -0.10 pts · moved our way 6%Closing-line value: how far the closing spread moved toward the side taken at the first lock. Positive means the market agreed with the pick after it was made — the cleanest early signal of whether a spread model has any edge, and it shows up long before win-loss records mean anything.
18-19
Over / under · 49%
vs opener 17-18 · 49%CLV +0.10 pts
| Week | Games | Winners | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · Wk 1 | 37 | 31/37 | 13-24 | 18-19 |
| Game | Winner | Spread | Total | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA 45 at CAL 24 Sat, Sep 5, 10:30 PM | CAL 62%✗ | CAL +2.5✗ | O 53.5✓ | 0.0 |
| WKU 14 at NEV 49 Sat, Sep 5, 10:30 PM | WKU 68%✗ | WKU PK✗ | U 51.5✗ | -1.5 |
| MORG 7 at ASU 70 Sat, Sep 5, 10:00 PM | ASU 79%✓ | MORG +43.5✗ | U 52.5✗ | 0.0 |
| MVSU 0 at SAC 52 Sat, Sep 5, 10:00 PM | MVSU 57%✗ | MVSU +38.5✗ | U 55.5✓ | -1.0 |
| CLEM 10 at LSU 51 Sat, Sep 5, 9:40 PM | LSU 58%✓ | CLEM +10✗ | U 49✗ | 0.0 |
| NAU 7 at ARIZ 35 Sat, Sep 5, 9:30 PM | ARIZ 82%✓ | NAU +33✓ | U 59.5✓ | -1.5 |
| PRST 20 at SDSU 53 Sat, Sep 5, 9:30 PM | SDSU 76%✓ | PRST +38.5✓ | U 61.5✗ | +2.0 |
| LAM 7 at UL 38 Sat, Sep 5, 8:00 PM | UL 51%✓ | LAM +20.5✗ | O 48.5✗ | 0.0 |
| UTU 7 at BYU 63 Sat, Sep 5, 8:00 PM | BYU 87%✓ | UTU +50.5✗ | U 61.5✗ | -1.0 |
| HAMP 0 at MD 62 Sat, Sep 5, 8:00 PM | MD 55%✓ | HAMP +45.5✗ | U 56.5✗ | 0.0 |
| SDST 18 at NU 34 Sat, Sep 5, 8:00 PM | NU 68%✓ | SDST +14✗ | O 49.5✓ | -1.5 |
| MUR 14 at MTSU 38 Sat, Sep 5, 7:45 PM | MUR 54%✗ | MUR +22.5✗ | O 55.5✗ | 0.0 |
| FAU 21 at FLA 66 Sat, Sep 5, 7:45 PM | FLA 78%✓ | FAU +25.5✗ | U 59.5✗ | +1.0 |
| VMI 3 at VT 73 Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM | VMI 51%✗ | VMI +54.5✗ | U 61.5✗ | 0.0 |
| NWST 6 at LT 80 Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM | LT 72%✓ | NWST +44.5✗ | O 56.5✓ | 0.0 |
| WMU 12 at MICH 13 Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM | MICH 77%✓ | WMU +27.5✓ | U 49.5✓ | 0.0 |
| ULM 13 at MSST 62 Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM | MSST 90%✓ | ULM +28.5✗ | O 54.5✓ | 0.0 |
| WYO 13 at CSU 35 Sat, Sep 5, 6:00 PM | WYO 50%✗ | WYO +3✗ | U 46.5✗ | 0.0 |
| NORF 10 at ODU 31 Sat, Sep 5, 6:00 PM | ODU 86%✓ | NORF +40.5✓ | U 52.5✓ | 0.0 |
| ALCN 3 at USM 49 Sat, Sep 5, 5:00 PM | USM 62%✓ | ALCN +19.5✗ | O 50.5✓ | 0.0 |
| NIU 0 at IOWA 40 Sat, Sep 5, 4:15 PM | IOWA 91%✓ | NIU +31.5✗ | O 44.5✗ | 0.0 |
| UNA 14 at ARK 31 Sat, Sep 5, 4:15 PM | ARK 58%✓ | UNA +40.5✓ | U 63.5✓ | 0.0 |
| OKST 10 at TLSA 24 Sat, Sep 5, 3:45 PM | TLSA 64%✓ | TLSA +13.5✓ | U 57.5✓ | 0.0 |
| TOW 15 at NAVY 42 Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM | NAVY 86%✓ | TOW +31.5✓ | O 50.5✓ | 0.0 |
| BC 15 at CIN 34 Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM | CIN 66%✓ | CIN -7✓ | O 51.5✗ | 0.0 |
| RGV 16 at UTSA 45 Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM | UTSA 73%✓ | RGV +28.5✗ | O 59.5✓ | 0.0 |
| BOIS 27 at ORE 34 Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM | ORE 83%✓ | BOIS +24.5✓ | O 51.5✓ | 0.0 |
| ME 3 at APP 55 Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM | APP 58%✓ | ME +20.5✗ | U 53.5✗ | 0.0 |
| MRSH 0 at PSU 45 Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM | PSU 79%✓ | MRSH +23.5✗ | O 52.5✗ | 0.0 |
| BAY 16 at AUB 17 Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM | AUB 54%✓ | BAY +7✓ | O 57.5✗ | 0.0 |
| TXST 7 at TEX 59 Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM | TEX 78%✓ | TXST +29.5✗ | O 60.5✓ | 0.0 |
| FUR 9 at TENN 56 Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM | TENN 78%✓ | FUR +48.5✓ | U 66.5✓ | 0.0 |
| FOR 0 at NDSU 38 Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM | NDSU 68%✓ | FOR +41.5✓ | O 54.5✗ | 0.0 |
| CIT 43 at CLT 41 Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM | CIT 65%✓ | CIT +20.5✓ | O 48.5✓ | 0.0 |
| TULN 3 at DUKE 17 Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM | DUKE 56%✓ | TULN +7.5✗ | O 50.5✗ | 0.0 |
| TNST 3 at UGA 63 Sat, Sep 5, 3:00 PM | UGA 91%✓ | TNST +48.5✗ | U 55.5✗ | — |
| URI 14 at TEM 38 Sat, Sep 5, 2:00 PM | TEM 61%✓ | URI +14.5✗ | O 51.5✓ | — |
Backtest Walk-forward: every pick made from ratings built only on games before it, then graded against the closing line. Reported straight, including the parts that do not work.
1342/1893
Winners · 71%
912-932-29
Against the spread · 49%
917-942-15
Over / under · 49%
| Season | Games | Winners | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 919 | 635/919 · 69% | 433-455-16 · 49% | 449-438-15 · 51% |
| 2025 | 934 | 679/934 · 73% | 466-451-12 · 51% | 449-483 · 48% |
| 2026 | 40 | 28/40 · 70% | 13-26-1 · 33% | 19-21 · 48% |
What it says: winners at about 70.6% over 2,400 FBS games against a 58.5% pick-the-home-team baseline, well calibrated, with a season prior from the previous year’s SP+ that lifted it from 70.1%. Against closing spreads the model is 49.9% — a coin flip; against the opening number it is 52.3% (2,147 games), which says the market moves toward the model’s side during the week and then closes the gap. Totals sit at 48.8%. So: winner calls are proven, spread calls have a small opener-only lean worth tracking (closing-line value is on every locked pick above), totals are leans.
Grades post the morning after each game day. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.