Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Nasrat Haqparast vs Chris Padilla

5:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Chris Padillaby KO/TKO56% to win · closed -115
Result: Chris Padilla by SUB in Round 3 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Chris Padilla
58% -140
Nasrat Haqparast
42% +140
How it ends
Padilla by KO/TKO
25.6%
fair +291
Padilla by SUB
15.5%
fair +547
Padilla by DEC
17.2%
fair +481
Haqparast by KO/TKO
8.9%
fair +1025
Haqparast by SUB
2.7%
fair +3568
Haqparast by DEC
30.1%
fair +232

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R128.4%fair +252
Ends in R215.6%fair +539
Ends in R38.6%fair +1062
Goes distance47.3%fair +111
How this fight plays out

The model makes Padilla a solid 58% favorite. Striking volume is near even (5.7 vs 6.4 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Padilla's most likely path is by KO/TKO (26%), and the fight goes the distance 47% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.