Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Stephanie Luciano vs Marina Spasić

10:00 AM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Stephanie Lucianoby DEC61% to win · closed -325
Result: Stephanie Luciano by SUB in Round 1 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Marina Spasić
32% +208
Stephanie Luciano
68% -208
How it ends
Spasić by KO/TKO
13.0%
fair +667
Spasić by SUB
2.3%
fair +4197
Spasić by DEC
17.1%
fair +485
Luciano by KO/TKO
8.1%
fair +1137
Luciano by SUB
27.9%
fair +259
Luciano by DEC
31.6%
fair +217

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R127.7%fair +261
Ends in R215.2%fair +556
Ends in R38.4%fair +1093
Goes distance48.7%fair +105
How this fight plays out

The model makes Luciano a solid 68% favorite. Striking volume is near even (4.8 vs 5.0 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Luciano's most likely path is on the scorecards (32%), and the fight goes the distance 49% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.