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Model pick: Kody Steele (58%), locked before the start; Kody Steele won (graded a hit).
The model's numbers here are recomputed from today's data; the pick locked before the fight is at the top.
Big number: the model's chance of that ending. Small number under it: the books' no-vig chance (— where they don't price it). Tap a cell for fair and best prices.
Solid: the model. Dashed: the books' map. ◇ = a separate two-way price for the same thing: over 1.5 rounds 57% · over 2.5 rounds 39% · goes the distance 34%.
Oldest to newest. Above the line: won; below: lost. Filled: ended early (K = KO/TKO, S = submission, then the round). Outline D: went to the judges. Tap a tile for the fight.
4 of 19 of their tracked fights went the distance. For this one, the model gave 25% that it goes the distance, the books 33%. History, not a forecast.
No price is posted for this fight, so the win chance is the model's own: Gugnon narrow at 55%. Striking volume is near even (4.0 vs 4.1 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Gugnon is most dangerous early — 7 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round. Gugnon's most likely path is by KO/TKO (25%), and the fight goes the distance 25% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Gugnon: 56% of Steele's wins come by knockout and 67% of Gugnon's losses have come the same way.
Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the sportsbooks' no-vig price. The model's own read (recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup) was tested on fights it was not tuned on and decides bouts nobody has priced. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.
Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
