Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Esteban Ribovics vs Edson Barboza

9:00 PM ET· final
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Model pick — locked before the fightThis fight is scored. The pick below is exactly what the model said pre-fight (also on the Results page) — it does not update with hindsight.
Esteban Ribovicsby DEC74% to win · closed -700
Result: Esteban Ribovics by KO/TKO in Round 2 — model got the winner ✓
Probetrics fight model
Edson Barboza
24% +324
Esteban Ribovics
76% -324
How it ends
Barboza by KO/TKO
6.4%
fair +1454
Barboza by SUB
1.2%
fair +8054
Barboza by DEC
15.9%
fair +529
Ribovics by KO/TKO
38.8%
fair +158
Ribovics by SUB
3.7%
fair +2594
Ribovics by DEC
33.9%
fair +195

“Fair” is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; “book” is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.

When it ends
Ends in R127.1%fair +269
Ends in R214.9%fair +571
Ends in R38.2%fair +1120
Goes distance49.8%fair +101
How this fight plays out

The model makes Ribovics a clear 76% favorite. On the feet, Ribovics sets the tempo — 7.0 significant strikes a minute to 4.3 — so Barboza needs moments, not volume. Ribovics is most dangerous early — 4 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round. Ribovics's most likely path is by KO/TKO (39%), and the fight goes the distance 50% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.

Model read from recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup, tested on fights it was not tuned on. The method is not published. Experimental — size responsibly.

Informational only. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.